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Base Metal Reflections and Outlooks – Copper, Nickel, Zinc, Lithium and Iron Ore

Junior Stock Review

2018 did not turn out like I thought it would – and that’s okay. As many of you already know, I don’t put much stock in trying to predict where metal prices are headed. Instead, I focus on the quantitative and qualitative aspects of each company that I invest in to determine whether the price to value ratio is adequate enough for the risk I’m going to take. If the metals rise in the meantime, that’s a huge bonus.

Here are a few thoughts on the metals in 2018 and what they may do in 2019.

 

Enjoy!

 

 

2018 Resource Market

Arguably the biggest headline affecting global markets in 2018 was the trade war between United States and China. However, I don’t think the trade war is solely to blame for where we are in terms of the resource market today. In my opinion, the rapid ascension of interest rates by the Fed might have had the biggest effect on the course of the global market.

To put it into perspective, interest rates were not only raised over the course of the last 12 months, but they were raised at almost double the frequency of years previous. In my opinion, this put a lot of stress on the global economy and, therefore, set up a “perfect storm,” so to speak, when the U.S. and China trade war took centre stage.

To give context to a prediction on where the market is headed in 2019, I think you must first decide the direction of interest rates and the U.S. and China trade war.

For interest sake, I will say that the Fed will not continue raising interest rates in 2019. I believe the short-term fear of a market crash will outweigh the long-term consequences of not continuing to raise interest rates.

Additionally, while I can’t reference any evidence that would point to a resolution to the trade war, it is my feeling that both governments will see a need to stimulate their economies, and as a result, will find a resolution to the trade war in 2019.

With these two issues taken care of, I believe that although the broader market is overdue for correction by historical standards, a pause or a reduction in interest rates and a resolution with China will lead to new highs.

In terms of the resource sector, I believe we will see a precious and base metal resurgence, with spot prices increasing and the equities following suit.

 

 

Copper

I’m bullish on the long-term supply and demand fundamentals for copper. In 2019, I see copper maintaining an average price of around US$ 3.00/lbs for the year.

Copper Exploration

On the copper exploration side of things, my attention has been drawn to South America, specifically the north end of the Andean copper belt, which is located in Ecuador. In June of this year, I wrote an article entitled, “Ecuador – A Renaissance in Mining Investment Attractiveness?” For those interested in Ecuador as a jurisdiction for mining investment, I believe it’s a very valuable read.

For those who have been following resource companies with projects in Ecuador over the last year, they would have been pleasantly surprised to see mining behemoth, BHP, take a major position in Ecuadorian copper developer, SolGold (SOLG:TSX).

In my opinion, this is both a nod to the quality of Cascabel and to the level of comfort that a major mining company has with investment in Ecuador.

The fact is, much of Ecuador has been untouched by modern exploration techniques, and rightfully so, as the political environment prior to 2014 made it much too risky for major investment. I believe that times are changing, however, and while there is still risk, Ecuador has great mineral potential.

The company in which I’m investing, and which is exploring in Ecuador, is Adventus Zinc Corporation. They will be conducting a major exploration program on their Santiago Project, which, I believe, holds great potential for a copper porphyry discovery. I just wrote an article on their 2019 exploration program – check it out here.

Also exploring for copper in the Andean Copper Belt is Aethon Minerals. For those who aren’t familiar, Aethon is a spin-out of Altius Minerals and IPOed early this year. The company has gone through some growing pains since its IPO and is in the midst of a CEO change, but I’m confident, especially given their cash position of roughly $5.0 million and their project portfolio, things will turn around quickly in 2019. Also to note, they are currently trading for less than their cash value!

 

Companies I own, looking to add to or take a position in: Adventus Zinc Corp. (ADZN:TSXV), Aethon Minerals (AET:TSXV), Mundoro Capital (MUN:TSXV), Kutcho Copper (KC:TSXV)

 

 

Zinc

Zinc’s fall from its 5-year high of around US$1.60/lbs to almost US$1.00/lbs was drastic. The fall from grace is a mixture of some new production coming online, hidden inventories feeding the market and, finally, the U.S. and China trade war, which, I believe, was enough to send the price back down to levels we haven’t seen since the fall of 2016.

However, LME zinc inventories remain very low and, in my opinion, still give upside potential to the zinc price. While I do believe there’s potential for a nice spike in the price, especially upon news of a resolution in the U.S. and China trade war, I don’t think it will be sustainable over the long term.

In my opinion, barring a crash in the global markets, today’s zinc price, between $1.10 and $1.20, is probably a good gauge for an average price in 2019, with proviso that there’s definitely room for a nice spike due to the very low visible LME inventories.

Zinc Air Batteries

Zinc air batteries are not new, as the technology started to be developed in labs in the early to mid 2000s. What is new is their growing commercial use, which I have been increasingly hearing and reading about this year.

Unlike the narrative-heavy vanadium redox battery storylines, zinc air batteries are legit and I believe could be an emerging major demand source for zinc in the future.

 

Companies I own, looking to add to or take a position in: Adventus Zinc Corp. (ADZN:TSXV), Tinka Resources (TK:TSXV)

 

 

Nickel

LME Nickel inventory levels have been falling steadily since mid 2017 and have been continually reaching new 5-year lows this year. In my opinion, this has been driven by strong consumption in the stainless steel industry and, of course, the burgeoning battery market.

Given this fact, I think it’s apparent that there’s a mine supply deficit, particularly that which feeds the class 1 nickel market.  I wrote about this earlier this year, here is a link to the article for further reading.

For me, personally, the high consumption, falling inventories and weak spot price have been the most interesting thing to watch in this year’s nickel market, as the spot price really is running opposite to the way most would think.

In my opinion, in whatever scenario you pick, the world is headed toward electrification. This revolution in human history will be led by electric vehicles (EV) and will have a tremendous impact on the battery metals market.

In saying this, given the current and future chemistries used in EV batteries, NMC and NCA, nickel plays a major role. While I don’t see it staying this way forever, I would say that the next 10 to 12 years of battery demand is very bullish for nickel.

The question that then needs to be asked is, what will the EV adoption rate be, moving forward?

It’s a hard question to answer, but one thing to keep in mind is countries around the world are incentivising the adoption of EVs with rebates and instituting taxes on carbon emissions. I believe these incentives and penalties will only increase with time, making me more optimistic of a higher growth rate in the global EV market.

In saying this, it still isn’t an easy question to answer. One of the nickel market’s largest producers, Glencore, released an estimate a few months ago which used a 30% adoption rate in EVs by 2030.

In terms of nickel, a 30% adoption rate is equal to roughly 1.0 million tonnes of class 1 nickel demand. Considering the entire nickel market is currently 2.0 million tonnes, and given the current supply and demand fundamentals and the time and cash needed to find, develop and produce nickel sulphide projects, you have to ask yourself, where is it going to come from?

I’m bullish on nickel and provided there is resolution to the U.S. and China trade war, think 2019 is going to be a good year for the nickel price. In my opinion, nickel could challenge the US$8/lbs price level in 2019.

Companies I own, looking to add to or take a position in: FPX Nickel Corp. (FPX:TSXV), Horizonte Minerals (HLM:TSX)

 

 

Lithium

As I just stated in the nickel outlook portion of this article, I believe the world is headed toward electrification. With this paradigm change will come a much higher demand for batteries. Given current commercial battery technology and chemistry, this means that lithium will most likely continue to play a major role in the battery market as we move through the initial stages of this major shift.

The lithium market is small in comparison to the major base metals and is controlled by 4 main companies, SQM, Abemarle, FMC Corp. and Sichaun Tianqi Lithium Industries. Here’s a link to an article I did on the lithium market.

Given its size, I suspect that steady pricing is in everyone’s best interest and, therefore, believe we have somewhat of a floor in pricing at least at the moment.

In saying this, I believe this is why security of supply will become so important moving forward, because  at some point, there will be many hands looking to attain supply from only a few players.

Many pundits point out that there’s no shortage of lithium in the world, however, I think the rate at which it’s extracted will become the issue in the future, because I see the rate at which industry requires lithium will be much higher than current capacity.

I’m bullish on lithium and believe that we will see higher lithium prices in the future. For 2019, I expect prices to remain steady, while I believe the equities will make a rebound after their dismal performance in 2018.

Companies I own, looking to add to or take a position in: Neo Lithium (NLC:TSXV)

Iron Ore

From my perspective as a speculator, the narrative surrounding iron ore is concentrated on the premiums given to the high-grade concentrates – those which have over 62% iron content.  The beauty of the high-grade iron ore market is that it’s currently smaller than the low- grade portion and, given the increasingly stringent environmental regulations in all countries, most importantly China, I believe there is good reason to think that a hefty premium will be paid, moving forward, almost regardless of where the global economy is headed.

A great example of the high-grade market’s resiliency is its performance over the course of 2018, where both its premium and price have held fairly steady in the face of rapidly increasing interest rates and a U.S. and China trade war.

 

Overall, the global iron ore market isn’t short on iron ore, as there are many sources of low grade – 62% iron content, primarily in Brazil and Australia. In my opinion, the majority of the iron ore market will be susceptible to the ebb and flow of the global economy, and the direction with which the largest iron ore producers, Vale, want to push it.

I’m bullish on high-grade iron ore and am putting my cash in companies that are producers of the high-grade product or are developing high-grade iron ore projects toward production. In terms of price, I’m hard-pressed to pick a number. What I will say is that the high-grade product will continue to fetch a premium, which I believe will only increase with time.

The Labrador Trough is my focus, as not only is it located in a premier mining jurisdiction (Canada), but many of the companies with iron ore projects in that area are able to produce high-grade concentrates – 65% iron content.

 

Companies to watch – Altius Minerals (ALS:TSX), Champion Iron Ore (CIA:TSX), Labrador Iron Ore Royalty (LIF:TSX) and Alderon Iron Ore ( TSXV).

 

 

 

Until next time,

 

Brian Leni  P.Eng

Founder – Junior Stock Review

 

 

 

Disclaimer: The following is not an investment recommendation, it is an investment idea. I am not a certified investment professional, nor do I know you and your individual investment needs. Please perform your own due diligence to decide whether this is a company and sector that is best suited for your personal investment criteria. I do own shares in Adventus Zinc Corporation, Altius Minerals, Aethon Minerals, LIORC, Neo Lithium, FPX Nickel, Kutcho Copper, Tinka Resources.  Of the companies mentioned in this article, Kutcho Copper is the only company with which I have a business relationship. Kuthco Copper is a sponsor of Junior Stock Review.

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Mineral Exploration in Ecuador – Adventus

Adventus Zinc Corp

I continue to receive questions regarding the direction of the market, to which I can only reply “I don’t know.” I certainly have thoughts about the factors affecting metals markets, but am not under the illusion that I KNOW where the market is headed.

What I do know is that my money is best invested, in tranches, in the best companies in the sector. The best companies are led by the best management teams and, besides the pure exploration companies, are the owners of the highest quality projects.

By high quality, I’m referring to their economics. The best projects have robust economics at today’s metal prices.

It’s my opinion that when market sentiment does eventually change, the bull portion of the next cycle will be HUGE. Along with the supply shortages that I see in the fundamentals of most of the metals, the demand side of the equation looks particularly strong as, globally, the world begins to push toward electrification.

With the short-term direction of the market hard to gauge, one avenue for investors who want to give themselves the potential to profit in the relative immediate future, is to look at exploration companies with a program happening now or in the near future.

Like development companies, the best exploration companies are headed by the best management teams, who have chosen their exploration projects by a set of criteria which gives them the best possible chance at success.

I highly encourage investors to meet, or at the very least call, the people who are running the companies with which they are going to place their money. One of the questions that I think needs to be asked is how the company came to the conclusion that the project they are going to be exploring gives them the best chance at finding a mineral deposit of value.

One company which has been one of my favourites for some time now is Adventus (ADZN:TSXV). They are developing their Curipamba project in Ecuador.  While I’m looking forward to an updated PEA on Curipamba in the new year, it’s Adventus’ exploration potential with their Pijili and Santiago projects that has my full attention – and excitement – at the moment.

Let’s take a look!

 

 

Determining Potential Value in Exploration

Determining the upside potential or value of an exploration company isn’t easy, as much of the criteria is subjective in nature. Here are, in my opinion, a few of the most important points to ponder when it comes to evaluating investment in an exploration company:

#1 – Quality of the Management Team – Take a good look at the management team and any advisors or consultants associated with the company. Past success is a very good indicator of future potential. A good CEO should be able to clearly define the details, mainly the why and how of their upcoming exploration program.

#2 – Jurisdiction –Typically, the regions with the highest potential for uncovering a high value mineral deposit are those which have the most associated risk. It’s imperative to do your due diligence and understand where you are putting your money. Know your risk tolerance – buyer beware.

#3 – A Project’s Historical Work – Answer the following questions:

  • In what stage of exploration is the project?
    • Has surface work been completed? Grab samples, soil samples, geophysics?
    • Is the project drill ready? How were the targets chosen?
  • Historical work on the project?
    • Has the project already been explored by multiple companies?
    • If yes, what were their results? Why should you expect anything different?

NOTE: If a company is looking at exploring or developing a project that has already had a lot of work or exploration completed on it, the company needs to clearly outline how their exploration approach is different from the previous operators, and why it has a chance to be successful.

#4 – Cash – Cash is especially important in the current market. Does the company have enough money to execute on the exploration program that they have planned?

#5 – If unsuccessful, will I be able to sell? – This is an important question to answer and is partially overlapped with the previous point regarding cash. For me, I want to speculate in a company that will have cash remaining after their exploration program is complete in both positive and negative scenarios. An even better situation is to speculate in a company that will have cash remaining and an additional project(s) further down the development path, to which the market can assign value. In my opinion, you don’t want to be invested in a company that doesn’t have any money at this point in the market cycle, let alone own one with a recent unsuccessful exploration program.

 

Adventus’ Exploration Potential

Let’s use the criteria I just outlined to look at Adventus.

 

#1 – Quality of the Management Team – In my opinion, the Adventus team is as good as they come in the junior resource sector. The company is led by CEO, Christian Kargl-Simard, who has over 15 years of experience in both technical and finance roles in the mining industry. Additionally, and core to the team, is VP Corporate Development, Sam Leung. Leung has over 10 years of experience in the mining industry, having worked for Lundin Mining Corporation prior to joining Adventus. Finally, and key to Adventus’ exploration efforts in Ecuador, is VP Exploration Jason Dunning. Dunning has over 20 years experience in the mining industry and has worked in a similar role for Alamos Gold Inc., Selwyn Resources Ltd. and Yukon Zinc Corporation.

In addition to the main team, a major strength of the company, in my opinion, is in their association and close connection with Altius Minerals. For those who are unaware, Altius is both a diversified mining royalty company and mineral exploration project generator. Altius is headed by CEO, Brian Dalton, who is also Chairman of Adventus’ Board of Directors.

Also, Dr. Lawrence Winter, Altius’ VP Exploration, is an advisor to Adventus and, in my experience, has a top notch reputation throughout the resource sector.

People are key to the success of any company and, in the case of Adventus, I’m confident that this team will make 2019 a pivotal year in the company’s development.

 

#2 – Jurisdiction – Adventus’ project exploration and development focus is in Ecuador. For those who are unaware, Ecuador has a rocky past when it comes to mining investment. In my opinion, however, it’s changing in a direction that is attractive to mining investment and is a place where I have invested my cash.  Earlier this year, I wrote an article regarding Ecuador’s mining investment attractiveness; for those considering investment in Ecuador, I believe it’s a must-read.

 

#3 – Historical Work

Adventus is in, what I consider to be, a highly advantageous position when it comes to exploration and development in Ecuador; they are partnered with Salazar Resources, a junior resource company led by a senior Ecuadorian management team.

The Curipamba project was the first deal on which the two companies partnered, giving Adventus the opportunity to earn-in on 75% of the project, given development and payment requirements over a 5-year period.

Since this initial deal, Adventus and Salazar have expanded their relationship into an Ecuador-wide exploration Alliance.  The Alliance ownership is 80% Adventus and 20% Salazar, and allows the Alliance Board, which is made up of Sam Leung and Jason Dunning of Adventus, and Fredy Salazar, to pick and choose what they feel are the highest potential projects, and bring them into the Alliance for exploration and development.

 

Pijili Project

The first project to be brought into the Alliance is the Pijili project, which was granted to Salazar by the Republic of Ecuador.

The Pijili project consists of 3 concessions totalling 3,246 hectares, and is located in the Ecuadorian province of Azuay. Its potential has been revealed only through the legally permitted artisanal mining which is currently taking place – exploration through modern techniques has yet to take place.

ore sample

Artisanal miners are mining precious metals bearing structures via several small open pits and underground tunnels. Also, Salazar notes that there is visible evidence of copper mineralization along the walls of the small open pits.

artisan mine

In their most recent news release, Adventus announced the commencement of an airborne MobileMT geological survey of the Pijili and Santiago projects. As VP of Exploration, Jason Dunning, cites in the news release,

“MobileMT will greatly enhance drill hole targeting by defining high-priority targets for follow-up in early 2019. This is the first time there will be a deep penetrating, uniform dataset for Pijilí and Santiago projects that will allow us to more accurately visualize the geological and structural framework in 3D to define potentially prospective host rocks for intrusion-related mineralization.”

Pijili presents a blank slate for exploration, one that I believe holds a ton of mineral potential.

 

 

Santiago Project

The second project brought into the Alliance is the Santiago project, which is roughly 110 km west of Lundin’s Fruta del Norte gold deposit.  Santiago consists of a single concession, which covers an area of 2,350 hectares.

Santiago Project

Unlike Pijili, Santiago has seen the use of modern exploration techniques, which has exposed a series of vein occurrences. The occurrences have yielded good reconnaissance chip sampling results. Here are a few highlights, which can be found on Salazar’s website and SEDAR.

Santiago Project - Adventus

Source: Salazar Resources

 

 

Espanola Vein

2.0 m @ 28.1g/t Au and 231 g/t Ag

1.0 m @ 26.0 g/t Au and 242 g/t Ag

 

Quartz-Tourmaline Vein

1.9 m @1.19 g/t Au, 14.3 g/t Ag and 296 ppm Mo

3.3 m @ 0.59g/t Au, 36.6 g/t Ag and 390 ppm Mo

 

Ribs Zone and Ancha Vein

1 m @ 1.29 g/t Au and > 100 g/t Ag

1 m @1.65 g/t Au and > 100 g/t Ag

 

F.U. Structure

1.40 m @ 4.8 g/t Au and 378 g/t Ag

1.20 m @ 6.4 g/t Au and 136 g/t Ag

 

In addition to the chip samples, Santiago has seen historical drilling on the project by a previous operator, Newmont Mining Corporation.

The historical results are very intriguing as they exhibit characteristics of a Cu-Au porphyry system. I must, however, caution anyone from drawing any conclusions from these results as they are not confirmable – the drill core is unavailable.

Here are a few of the highlights, which can be found on SEDAR:

Hole FU 01 – Interval 0 to 323 m, 0.37 g/t Au, 0.23% Cu – 0.47% CuEq

Hole FU 02 – Interval 129 to 300 m, 0.5 g/t Au, 0.33% Cu – 0.66% CuEq

Hole FU 08 – Interval 0 to 300 m, 0.24 g/t Au, 0.11% Cu – 0.27% CuEq

 

As mentioned earlier, Adventus has announced an airborne MobileMT geological survey of Santiago, which will assist the exploration team in identifying the highest potential drill targets.

Personally, I will be watching for news from the airborne work and the targets that Adventus decides to pursue. In my opinion, there’s a lot of potential here.

 

 

#4 – Cash – In Adventus’ current corporate presentation, the company lists their cash position as $10 million, as of October 30th 2018. Given the current market dynamics, this is a great position to be in. Additionally, I might add, Adventus has enjoyed the uncanny ability to raise money through this bear market portion of the resource cycle, which I expect will continue in the future.

 

 

#5 – Downside Risk – Currently, as an investor of Adventus, I believe the biggest risk to my capital comes from the jurisdiction – Ecuador, for reasons I outlined in my article.  While there’s risk of failure in exploration at Pijili and Santiago, I don’t see the stock price taking a big hit for failure. Given the MCAP and the value I assign to Adventus’ assets, I see little to no value assigned to exploration upside at Pijili or Santiago.

Furthermore, given Adventus’ cash position, their access to funds and the assets they hold under management, I believe the risk to reward potential presented by the exploration is fantastic.

 

 

Concluding Remarks

The end of the year is upon us and with it typically comes a great opportunity to buy the best junior resource companies at a discount. While no one can predict the direction of a market with any consistency, buying the highest quality companies, with catalysts for share price appreciation, puts us, in my opinion, in the best possible position to profit.

To me, Adventus is one of those high quality companies that give the investor multiple avenues for success.  First, you have their flagship Curipamba project, which should have an updated PEA early in the new year. Second, you have their high potential exploration projects, Pijili and Santiago, whose upside potential, in my opinion, hasn’t been factored into Adventus’ MCAP as of yet. Third, you have Adventus’ portfolio of Irish projects, for which they are actively looking to find a JV partner. Finally, you have Adventus’ large stake in Canstar Resources, who will be beginning their inaugural exploration program on their Newfoundland based projects next year.

I’m looking forward to 2019!

 

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Until next time,

 

Brian Leni   P.Eng

Founder – Junior Stock Review

 

 

Disclaimer: The following is not an investment recommendation, it is an investment idea. I am not a certified investment professional, nor do I know you and your individual investment needs. Please perform your own due diligence to decide whether this is a company and sector that is best suited for your personal investment criteria. I do own shares in Adventus Zinc Corporation. All Adventus Zinc Corporation analytics were taken from their website and press release.  I have NO business relationship with Adventus Zinc Corporation.

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A Look at Brazil’s Mining Investment Attractiveness

Brazil map

A mining jurisdiction’s investment attractiveness is determined by a number of different criteria, such as political ideology and stability – domestically and internationally, financial position, rule of law, culture, and mineral potential.

In the case of Brazil as a jurisdiction for mining investment, I believe that the next 4 years could present a great opportunity for investment.  My reasoning is based on a few key points:

  • Political Ideology – Current Presidential candidate favourite, Jair Bolsanaro – the “Brazilian Donald Trump,” has the potential to do a lot of good for the economy. Like Trump, judge him on his actions, not on his words!
  • Political Stability – In a general sense, I believe there can be stability in the short term. My guess, however, is that the government corruption is not over, not by a long shot. While I believe corruption is inherent to government, in Brazil’s case it appears to be playfully accepted, with many Brazilians using the expression, “it will end in pizza,” when referring to the way that they deal with scandals.
  • Culture – The Republic of Brazil was built around mining and farming. In my opinion, mining will always play a major role in the Brazilian economy and, therefore, in the majority of cases (not all) will be seen in a favourable light.
  • Mineral Potential – Brazil has long been a world-class destination for iron ore, bauxite and gold. In my opinion, there are many more deposits to find and develop, making Brazil an important destination for mining investment dollars over the course of the next bull market.

While these points are the basis for my motivation to invest in Brazil, I’m still keenly aware of some of the sticking points that could quickly derail it.

  • Politics – If Brazilians were to elect anyone but Bolsanaro, my economic outlook for Brazil would be much more pessimistic than it is today. Polling has two left wing candidates following Bolsanaro, and would, in my opinion, in the very best case scenario, bring about no change to the current system. However, I think it is far more likely that they would apply further socialist type policy measures to remedy the economy – and will ultimately fail.
  • Culture – Government corruption is far too common in Brazil. Further scandals brought into the public eye could prove to be chaotic, given the state of the economy.
  • Finances – Brazil has a major issue with their public pension obligations. A reform of this poor system is needed, but has been ingrained in the culture over the last 30 years. At some point in the future, this will be the cause of a major decline in the Brazilian economy.

 

No jurisdiction is perfect, weighing the risk to reward potential of any investment is key to success.

 

Enjoy!

 

 

Brazil by the Numbers

Became the Republic of Brazil on Nov. 19 1889

  • Brazil is South America’s largest country by both population and by land size. The only two South American countries that aren’t bordered by Brazil are Ecuador and Chile.

Population: 209.205 million (2018)

Capital City: Brasilia

Largest City: Sao Paulo – 21.3 million

26 States, 1 Federal District – Acre, Alagoas, Amapa, Amazonas, Bahia, Ceara, Distrito Federal, Espirito Santo, Gioas, Maranhao, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gerais, Para, Paraiba, Parana, Pernambuco, Piaui, Rio de Janeiro, Rio Grande do Norte, Rio Grande do Sul, Rondonia, Roraima, Santa Catarina, Sao Paulo, Sergipe and Tocantins

Language: Portuguese

Ethnic Groups: White – 47.7%, Mulatto – 43.1%, Black – 7.6%, Asian – 1.1%, Indigenous – 0.4% (CIA)

Religion: Roman Catholic – 64%, Protestant – 22.2%, Other – 13.8%

Unemployment: 11.8% (CIA)

Currency: Brazilian Real

GDP: $2.1 trillion USD (2017), 8th largest in the world

Fraser Mining Investment Attractiveness Score: 55.12 – 11th in the category which includes Argentina, Latin America and Caribbean Basin

Agricultural Production: Coffee, oranges, sugar cane, beef and soybeans

Heavy Industry: Mining – hard rock, Oil and Gas, forestry, steel, farming

Largest Company: Petrobras (Brazilian Petroleum Corporation) – Produces 2.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. Petrobras is a semi-public company, with over 50% ownership by the Brazilian government. Petrobras employs over 65,000 people and generated close to US$ 90 billion in revenue, in 2017.

 

 

 

 

 

Brazilian Culture

In my opinion, political risk within any jurisdiction is the result of the region’s culture.  Understanding the culture of a society is integral for gauging risk and predicting the future actions of the society in terms of how it will affect your prospective investment.

The vast majority of investors don’t take the time to try and understand the culture of the jurisdiction with which they are investing. Thus, for those of us who are willing to put in the time, a tremendous advantage is gained over the rest of the market, especially when it comes to those of us willing to invest in some of the more risky locales.

Keep this in mind – It take hundreds of years to create cultures and hundreds of years to change them, therefore, putting in the time to understand them is time well spent – they aren’t going anywhere quickly!

 

In my opinion, Brazil’s current culture was predominantly influenced by a few key facts:

  • Politics/Governance over the course of Brazil’s history – From its colonial beginnings to its first steps toward independence in 1824, to the Old Republic between 1889 to 1930, and the military dictatorship from 1964 to 1985, and finally, its present day democratic government.
  • Slavery – Brazil was the recipient of close to 5 million African slaves over the course of its historical slave trade, which ended in 1866.
  • Geography – Possibly the most understated of the key factors affecting Brazilian culture and future growth as a nation is its geography, or better put, its topography.

 

Politics/Governance – Captaincies, Old Republic, Military Dictatorship and Democracy

The Portuguese discovered Brazil in the early 1500s. The original plan for governance over the new world didn’t involve a centralized government, but instead, divided Brazil’s east coast into 15 Captaincies.

These Captaincies were meant to act independently, with each individual leader to have complete control over his territory. Ultimately, these Captaincies were a failure and led to the formation of a central government around 1549.

Brazilian Captaincies

Source: Wiki

Religion – Jesuits

Interestingly, in this new attempt at instituting a centralized government and garnering control over the new world, colonizers were aided by Jesuit priests, whose purpose was to bring religion – the catholic faith – to the indigenous people.

The Jesuits’ ability to earn the trust and eventually convert the indigenous peoples to the catholic faith is thought to be linked to their ability to understand the native culture, most importantly, the various languages of each tribe.

The native’s assimilation into the catholic faith helped them avoid the slave trade, which was driving the new world economies of the Americas at the time. It came at a high cost, however, as the tribal cultures of many of the indigenous people were lost in the process.

Religion has had a major effect on Brazil’s history, and in my opinion, will continue to shape the destiny of this growing country.

 

Old Republic

The Old Republic period of governance began with Brazil’s official recognition as a Federation, which occurred on November 19, 1889.  Governance during this period began officially with the military, however, it quickly gave way to the Coffee and Milk Policy years, in which candidates from the Sao Paulo and Minas Gerias States took turns holding governing power over the Federation.

Why is it referred to as Coffee and Milk Policy? Going back to the original colonization days of Captaincies, the regions of Sao Paulo and Minas Gerias were the most successful economically.

Sao Paulo was a proficient coffee producer, which in those days made up the majority of the Brazilian economy, and Minas Gerais, as I’m sure you guessed it, had good diary producing capability. The economic prowess of these states allowed them to garner influence by favours and force and, thus, control the Brazilian Federation for close to 30 years.

Eventually, the people revolted against this monopoly of power and it led to the collapse of the Brazilian economy around 1930, due to coffee prices and the famous American stock market crash of 1929. With crisis brings opportunity and, in this case, it allowed a new regime of governance to takeover Brazil.

 

Military Dictatorship

In 1964, the Brazilian economy was ravaged by inflation, and as a crisis usually does, presented an opportunity. In this case, it was for Brazil’s military to overthrow President Joao Goulart and his government, establishing authoritarian rule over the country.

Throughout history, military coups such as this have been met with disaster, as sound economic policy has never been a military strong point.  In Brazil’s case, it’s said that the military recognized this or at least had no interest in it, leaving economic policy to a select group of entrusted technocrats.

In the first decade of the military’s 20 year occupation, Brazil experienced what is commonly referred to as “The Brazilian Miracle,” which refers to the roughly 10% in average annual growth in GDP they experienced under the military’s control. Much of the growth is attributed to the industrialization of the Brazilian economy, with many people urbanizing themselves.

While the growth of the country’s economy was great, it was still under a government which had not been voted in and, like any force, repressive in this instance, has an equal and opposite reaction. In this case, Brazilian teens, who are now in their sixties or seventies, were forever changed by this period in history.

The last decade of military control was met with the oil embargo in the ’70s, which led to dramatically higher oil prices, sending countries dependent upon imported oil into crisis. To deal with the crisis, Brazil’s military government increased their borrowing from international lenders. This move would prove to be costly, because by the end of the ’70s, Brazil had become one of the most indebted nations in the world. This opened the door for political change, which occurred in 1985.

 

Democratically Elected Government

The ‘New Republic’ began a new era of democratically elected government and reflects the system which is currently in place. Fast-forwarding to the 2000’s, and we begin to see the political products of the military dictatorship emerge, beginning with one of today’s key political figures in Brazil; Lula da Silva, Brazil’s President from 2003 to 2011. In his early 20’s, Lula came of age, so to speak, during the military regime’s reign. He spoke out against the dictatorship, making him an enemy of the government and a hero to the people who followed him.

Parlaying this experience and recognition, Lula later became the leader of the Worker’s Party– which has a left-centre leaning social democratic ideology.

In the 2003 election, Lula and the Worker’ Party won the Presidency with more than 60% of the national vote, and so began da Silva’s two terms in office. Following Lula was Dilma Rousseff, a Worker’s Party member who was elected as Brazil’s first female President.

Unfortunately, unlike Lula, Rousseff didn’t make it to the end of her term as President as she was impeached for breaking budget rules while in the middle of one of the biggest scandals in Brazilian history – Operation Car Wash.

Operation Car Wash

In March 2014, in what began as a sting operation focused on money launderers, Operation Car Wash ended up becoming one of the biggest corruption scandals in the history of Brazil. Prosecutors uncovered a scandal that centred around the State-owned Petrobras, in which more than $5 billion in illegal payments were made to Brazilian politicians.

The political corruption surrounding Operation Car Wash wasn’t isolated to any one party or set of political ideology, as politicians on both sides have been implicated and charged.

One of the most notable politicians caught up in this mess was former President, Lula da Silva. Lula was sentenced to 9.5 years in prison after being found guilty on corruption and money-laundering charges – $1.1 million.

 

Presidential Election 2018

2018 is an election year in Brazil and its result could have a major impact on the short term outlook for the country. This year’s election is headlined by current Presidential favourite, Jair Bolsanaro, who was just downgraded from intensive care to semi-intensive care after being stabbed at a political rally on September 6th.

Bolsanaro leads the Social Liberal Party (PSL), which is considered to be right leaning in its political ideology. Bolsanaro began his career in the military before entering politics in 1988 as a city councillor in Rio de Janeiro.

The left wing media has attacked Bolsanaro for being what they say is sympathetic to the former military dictatorship and for his connection to the catholic faith. Many pundits have compared him to U.S. President, Donald Trump, for his promotion of nationalism.

There is an interesting video which looks at the role of religion in the coming Brazilian election and how it may affect its outcome. The video is produced by VICE Media and is worth watching, however, I do believe the content is presented from a leftist view point, so keep that in mind.

Talk is cheap, especially when it comes from politicians. If Bolsanaro is elected, however, it’s my belief that it would mean good things for the economy and, in at least the short term, could provide a nice boost to the Brazilian economy.

 

Fernando Haddad

Ironically, before Bolsanaro was given the crown as the Presidential front runner in this year’s election, it was former President and now convicted criminal, Lula da Silva, who wore the crown. Brazilian authorities, however, denied Lula’s candidacy, eliminating him from eligibility for the 2018 election.

NOTE: One of the craziest suggestions I think I have ever heard, the United Nations (UN) supported Lula in his attempt to run for the Brazilian Presidency from prison, citing it is his right to exercise his political rights while in prison.  What’s wrong with people?!

With his removal from the race, Lula publically stated his support for the new Worker’s Party leader, Fernando Haddad. Haddad, the former Mayor of Sao Paulo, is a career public servant who spent most of his working life in some part of the government.

If Haddad were to be elected, I’m sure we could expect much of the same policy decisions that we saw during the Lula and Rousseff years. Leftist ideology is not akin to great economics and, therefore, if Haddad or any of the other candidates of that persuasion were elected, it would be unfortunate, in my opinion.

 

 

 

Slavery

The world slave trade took place between roughly 1650 and 1860. Over the course of 200ish years, millions of Africans were enslaved and transported around the world – the Americas, Europe, Middle East and South East Asia – to work in many of the most labour-intensive jobs of that time, which included farming (sugar, cotton, coffee) and mining.

Brazil was one of the main destinations of the slave trade, with approximately 5 million slaves being transported over the course of history. The main ports for their entry were along the east coast, mainly Recife, Salvador and Rio de Janeiro.

Slave trade

Source: Chicago-Kent College of Law

Today, their influence on modern day Brazil is especially felt in these cities, with Salvador leading the way in Afro-Brazilian culture. Beginning with food, many of Brazil’s most famous dishes, including its national dish, Feijoada, a pork and bean stew, are derived from the staples of the African slave diet.

Musically, Samba is one of Brazil’s most recognized forms of dance and is derived from the Angola (West African nation) word semba, which means “a touch of the bellies.”  Samba music and dance is featured in Brazil’s world famous Carnival celebration each year, between the Friday afternoon before Ash Wednesday and Ash Wednesday at noon, which, to those who aren’t familiar with the catholic faith, marks the beginning of lent.

Finally, while not having a major influence overall in the country, the main source of the Muslim faith within Brazil is derived from the West African nations – Nigeria, Gold Coast, Angola and Zaire – from which the salves came.

Brazil’s northeast coast remains heavily influenced by its African roots and, as such, maintains its own unique sub-culture.

 

Brazil’s Geography

There are many things that affect the evolution of a society’s culture. In my opinion, one of the most forgotten influences on culture is the physical geography of the land with which the society resides.

A country’s topography has a major influence on its growth and how communities interact with one another. Today, most of the world’s economic powers have the vast majority of their population located around water – either on the coast or on rivers that have access to the coast. The northeast portion of the United States is great example of this, as the low lying land provides plenty of opportunity for growth in both population and the transportation of goods between mega cities such a New York and Boston.

Brazil is no different with the vast majority of its population located around its Atlantic coastline. Brazil’s topography, however, may also be a hindrance to its future growth potential, as a few of its most populated centres, Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Belo Horizonte, are separated by large stretches of mountainous terrain.

Brazil map

Source: Nations Encyclopedia

 

The difficult topography surrounding and between these cities, limits the amount and type of infrastructure that can be developed – with reasonable cost, at least. While these are large cities, especially Sao Paulo with a population of roughly 21 million, we may be at a point where they have hit their peaks in terms of population growth potential.

Brazilian Population Distribution

Source: Wiki

 

As you can see in the image above, the population density is sparse throughout the central and northwestern portion of the country. This is both a good and a bad thing. Firstly, the once acidic and nutrient deficient soils of the central portion of Brazil have been transformed by the addition of lime to neutralize its acidity and fertilizers, such as phosphorus, to enrich its quality. The central region, while remaining relatively unpopulated has become a major source of agricultural products for the country.

On the other hand, the northwestern portion of Brazil has remained, comparatively, undeveloped. The clear reason for the lack of development, at this point in time, is the Amazon rainforest. Not only is it a matter of preserving biodiversity, but also a matter of topography, as this region doesn’t lack water, at least during the rainy season.

The State of Amazonas (2.25 times the size of Texas), Brazil’s largest State, has a population of just over 4 million, and over 50% of that population resides in Manaus, its capital city. Moreover, a great example of a lack of infrastructure is the fact that there is no bridge across the Amazon River, cutting off the northern portion of the state – unless you have a boat.

In the last couple of years, much controversy has surrounded the proposed development of some of the Amazonian lands for agricultural purposes and mining. Current President, Michel Temer’s, attempt to open up large parcels of land in the Amazon rainforest, mainly the National Reserve of Copper and Associates (RENCA), was quashed in 2017 by a federal judge.

An interesting mining story in relation to the Amazon is the precarious case of Belo Sun Mining. Belo Sun is a junior resource company listed on the Toronto Venture Exchange. In 2013, a Brazilian court suspended Belo Sun’s environmental and provisional licenses, essentially halting all development of their Volta Grande project, which is located in the State of Para (apart of the Amazon Basin).

The court stated,

“Belo Sun had not taken necessary steps to analyze the mine’s potential impact on indigenous peoples who live within a few kilometers of the mine site.” ~ Globe and Mail

Fast-forwarding to 2017, and Belo Sun had their construction license suspended once more, again citing the need for the completion of an indigenous study. This is an interesting situation; I’m not sure if this is a reflection of a tough Brazilian regulatory body or incompetency on Belo Sun’s part. Maybe it’s both.  Regardless, it should be weighed when considering investments in the highly contentious region of the Amazon.

For me, when I’m considering investing in a Brazilian junior mining company, its location will be a big factor in my analysis. Proximity to an existing mining operation gets priority over projects that are essentially on their own.

 

Personal Note: In 2011, my wife and I spent 2 weeks in Brazil, visiting Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and a few smaller towns along the coast. I can attest to the mountainous terrain between Sao Paulo and Rio, and the fact that there aren’t really any significantly sized towns or infrastructure besides the road itself and a few gas stops.

Another interesting cultural reference that we experienced firsthand, and one which many Brazilians will attest to is ‘Brazilian time.’ ‘Brazilian time’ can mean a couple of things but we heard it used most in reference to (especially in the smaller towns) the amount of time it takes to get your lunch or Caipirinha at a restaurant. It wasn’t uncommon for it to take well over an hour to receive a ‘quick bite,’ and this had nothing to do with cooking time or how (not) busy the restaurant was at the time.

This, I’m sure, is by no means typical of the entire Brazilian population, but it’s interesting and different from how many of us, at least in Canada, tend to operate.

 

 

 

Pension Liabilities

When scanning articles surrounding Brazil’s economic outlook, it’s hard to find one that doesn’t reference Brazil’s large pension obligation. Thus far, attempts to reform the public pension plan have been rejected, and many pundits believe they have now passed the point in which a reform would even make a difference.

The Brazilian public pension policy is very generous; it allows men to retire at 55 and women at 53, while retaining nearly the same salary that they did when they worked.  Additionally, pensions are transferrable to surviving spouses, pushing the obligation even further into the future.

The current pension system was born in 1988, just after the Brazilian democratic revolution ousted the military dictatorship and took control of the country. For more than 30 years, the pension plan system has worked, for the most part, because there were enough new workers entering the economy to pay into the pension. Times, however, are changing.

In Brazil, workers are taxed 20% of their income toward the public pension system. As a comparison, Canadians currently pay 4.95% of their salaries into the Canadian Pension Plan (CPP), up to a maximum income level of $54, 900. The Brazilian contribution percentage drastically out-weighs that of the Canadians and, yet, it still comes up short of their future obligations. This tells us just how lucrative the Brazilian pension is and, more importantly, how radically the retiree to worker ratio must be changing.

In my research, I have found estimates stretching out to 2060 which suggest the ratio could get as high as 44 retirees to every 100 workers, which is 4 times higher than the current calculated ratio of 11 to 100.  In 2017, the Brazilian government experienced a 181 billion real ($US 318.58 million) gap between contributions and pension obligations. With deficits like that, you may think it’s a no brainer, something needs to change, but you would be wrong.

In April of 2017, the Globe and Mail reported that 75% of Brazilians opposed the reform of the pension plan, and given Brazil’s cultural dynamics, I would bet against any significant change occurring before this causes some real damage.

 

 

Concluding Remarks

Understanding a culture is not easy; our own cultural bias sometimes prevents us from objectively analyzing the nuances of another culture. Brazilian culture is diverse and has been influenced by many different events and groups throughout its history.

In terms of Brazil’s culture and how it pertains to investments, provided Bolsanaro, the Brazilian Donald Trump, is able to win the Presidential election, I believe the short-term prospects for Brazil are very good.

The public pension system, however, needs to be reformed and political corruption needs to be drastically reduced for the future of Brazil to remain bright for the long term. To this, I’m highly skeptical and would suggest that the Brazilian culture, as it stands right now, is unable to reconcile these major hurdles.

As well, extra marks are given to companies that have projects located in close proximity to existing mining operations. This point is especially important in the Amazon Basin, where there is obvious risk associated with satisfying both biodiversity and indigenous groups.

I’m invested in Brazil and believe, at least in the short term, there is money to be made in this beautiful South American country.

 

Don’t want to miss a new investment idea, interview or financial product review? Become a Junior Stock Review VIP now – it’s FREE!

 

Until next time,

 

Brian Leni  P.Eng

Founder – Junior Stock Review

 

 

Disclaimer: The following is not an investment recommendation, it is an investment idea. I am not a certified investment professional, nor do I know you and your individual investment needs. Please perform your own due diligence to decide whether this is a company and sector that is best suited for your personal investment criteria.

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Nickel Laterite’s Integral Role in the Coming Nickel Boom

Nickel Laterite Deposit Layers

In my opinion, nickel laterite deposits will continue to play a major role in the future of the global nickel market. Nickel laterite deposits are, in relative terms, abundant and located at shallow depths within the earth’s crust, making them an ideal low-cost nickel source for the stainless steel industry. I, however, believe that in the future the role of laterites will expand to help fulfill the burgeoning electric vehicle revolution.

There are 3 reasons why I think this:

  • EV battery market demand for Class 1 nickel will outpace, over time, the current production capacity of nickel sulphide deposits
  • Both the production and development of nickel sulphide deposits is on the decline. High exploration costs, a slow development process (i.e. permitting) translate into what can be a minimum of 10 years and an average of more than 20 years from discovery to the development into a mine.
  • An increasing proficiency in laterite ore processing techniques – Hydro-metallurgy

 

Electric Vehicle Revolution

In my opinion, EVs represent the most disruptive force within the resource sector since China began consuming metals on a huge scale during the last resource bull market. The reason I feel EVs will have such a disruptive force is a mixture of both metal supply constraints and the major influx of demand.

As I stated in my introduction, the metal I find the most interesting in this EV revolution, given its fundamentals going forward, is nickel.

CRU Nickel

Source: Glencore 2018 BMO Presentation

 

As you may or may not know, nickel is a key ingredient in the 2 most popular battery chemistries – nickel, manganese and cobalt (NMC); and nickel, cobalt and aluminum (NCA).

NMC and NCA market share

Source: Nornickel – May 2018

As you can see from the graph above, the most popular battery chemistry for the last couple of years has been NCM. Up until last year, NCM batteries were composed of equal parts, denoted 1-1-1, meaning 1 part nickel to 1 part cobalt to 1 part manganese. With the spike in cobalt prices, however, manufacturers have started to change the composition to be more economic, yet still have the stability needed for safe operation.

Currently, the newest commercially used ratio is 5-2-3, increasing the batteries’ reliance on nickel.  As well, but still in the experimental stage, is the 8-1-1 ratio, which dramatically shifts the use of nickel higher, making it by far the major component of this future new generation of battery.

Along with the cost savings, the higher ratio of nickel provides the battery with a higher energy density, allowing a battery to maintain a charge longer and have a longer range.

 

 

EV Market Demand – Class 1 Nickel

The nickel used within the batteries is termed Class 1 nickel and is mostly but not exclusively derived from nickel sulphide deposits. Although the current EV market’s demand for nickel is low, the growth profile is incredibly large and is really where the EVs could cause a disruption in the nickel market – if not all of the battery metal markets.

NOTE – Battery related consumption is estimated to reach 85,000 tonnes by 2020, representing 4% of the 2017 nickel supply.

Nickel Supply and Demand

Source: U.S. Geological Survey and RBC Capital Markets

 

To put this into perspective, we need to take a quantitative look at supply and demand. First, let’s look at supply; the global refined nickel supply for 2017 was around 2.1 million tonnes (both sulphides and laterites).

Second, the global nickel consumption for 2017 was around 2.2 million tonnes, demonstrating that demand is currently exceeding refined supply. For the focus of this article, this is particularly important. As I stated earlier, the EV market, at its current consumption rate, has very little effect in the overall market, however, as you can see, consumption is still exceeding refined supply.

What is the effect of EV demand over the next decade? This is a great question and key to understanding the predicament with which the nickel market is faced, moving forward.  A great estimation of future nickel demand is provided by Glencore in their 2018 Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conference presentation:

  • Assuming a 30% market capture of the world car market by 2030, EV nickel demand will reach 1.1 million tonnes per year.

1.1 million tonnes of Class 1 nickel consumption in today’s  market would encompass roughly 55% of the refined supply. Now assume that all 1.1 million tonnes can be serviced by the existing nickel sulphide refining capacity, which seems doable, but it isn’t!

There is going to be a proverbial “tug of war” between EV battery makers and speciality steel makers who consume Class 1 nickel for producing speciality grade steel products.

 

norlisk nickel

Source: Norlisk

Nickel Sulphide Deposits

What I find most interesting about nickel sulphides is that not only are their production figures predicted to curtail over the coming years, but the amount of projects awaiting development is low.  Why is this? In my mind, there are 3 reasons; first, a bear market in the nickel price which pre-dates 2016; second, the fact that exploring for these deep deposits is very costly; and finally, in comparison to nickel laterites, which are estimated to account for up to 70% of the crustal nickel deposits on the earth, there are far fewer sulphides to find.

Let’s take a look at how a nickel sulphide deposit is formed. Instead of me describing this, I found a fantastic image on the Balmoral Resources website, which takes us through the process. See below.

 Balmoral Nickel Deposit formation

Source: Balmoral Resources

 

Below are 2 pie charts depicting the distribution of known laterite and sulphide nickel deposits world-wide. Currently, the majority of nickel sulphide exploration is occurring in proximity to the world’s existing giant deposits, such as Vosiey Bay in Labrador, Russia, Finland and Australia.

Nickel Deposits by country

Source: Nickel Institute

Nickel Laterite Deposits

Nickel laterite deposits are found in the tropical regions of the world, places such as Indonesia, Western Australia, New Caledonia and the Philippines.  They are the result of the weathering of a nickel sulphide deposit and their composition is affected by a few key parameters, which include: the amount of weathering, drainage of groundwater and the tectonic setting.

Nickel Laterite Deposit Layers

Source: Murdoch University – Nickel Laterite Deposit Layers

 

There are 5 distinct layers or zones of a laterite deposit and they are as follows: ferricrust, red (upper) liminote, yellow (lower) limonite, transition or clay rich and saprolite/garnie. The key distinction between the layers is their composition, mainly the percentage of nickel and magnesium. Starting at the top and working our way down, you can see that the upper layers, the most weathered, have both the lowest percentages of nickel and magnesium. Conversely, the deeper layers contain the higher percentages of nickel and magnesium.

As you will see in Part 2 of this article, the composition of the laterite ore is key to how it is processed into its final product and, ultimately, how it will be consumed in its end use.

 

Sulphide Versus Laterite Deposits

Nickel sulphides and laterites are very different, not only in the basics such as composition, but on a higher level, such as the jurisdictions where they are found.  In my opinion, while the demand fundamentals of the nickel market are bullish, developments in 2 of the bigger jurisdictions for nickel mine production – Indonesia and the Philippines – could have a major effect on the supply side of the market, good or bad. Time will tell.

NOTE: There is a 3rd but much less common nickel mineral called Awaruite. There is only one deposit that I know of, FPX Nickel’s Baptiste Deposit in the Decar District, which is located in British Columbia, Canada.

 

A summary of the key differences between the 2 types of deposits:

  • Mining – Nickel sulphide deposits, which are typically found deep underground, are typically more expensive and difficult to mine in comparison to laterite deposits, which are found at surface and can be open pit mined.
  • Grade – Comparatively, sulphides are typically a higher grade than laterites.
  • Ore Processing – Comparatively, sulphides are easier and cheaper to process than laterites.
  • Exploration – Sulphide deposits are more expensive to find in comparison to laterite deposits. Sulphides are found deep in the earth’s crust and, therefore, are much harder and costlier to find.

As you can see, there are advantages and disadvantages to each type of ore. Currently, the sulphide ore mainly feeds class 1 nickel users, and the laterite ores mainly feed the stainless steel industry (which, by the way, currently accounts for 2/3 of the global nickel demand).

 

 

Nickel Laterite Ore Processing

Nickel laterite ore processing depends on the zone from which the ore is mined. As outlined earlier, each zone within a laterite deposit is very different in its chemical composition and, therefore, restricts the processing technique that can be used to extract the nickel.

Pyro-metallurgy

Smelting

Arguably the most well known and widely used processing technique for extracting payable metals is smelting. The smelting of nickel laterite ore is no different, as the smelting process is the dominant technique and is typically used to make nickel pig iron (NPI) for the Chinese stainless steel market.

NPI is created by mixing, saprolite ores with coking coal and a mixture of fluxes. The process culminates in an electric arc or blast furnace, which renders the unwanted impurities into slag and allows the molten mixture to be cast into molds, forming nickel pig iron.

The main advantage of the smelting process is that it is a proven technology and can process saprolite ores (high magnesium), in relative terms, quickly. As well, it has high nickel recoveries. The smelting process, however, it requires a higher grade laterite ore, a large amount of energy to operate, and finally, doesn’t separate cobalt in the process.

Hydro-metallurgy

Hydro-metallurgical processing of nickel laterite ores can produce either a pure metal or an intermediate product such as mixed hydroxide precipate (MHP), mixed sulphide precipate, nickel carbonate or mixed nickel oxide.

The production of pure metals comes at a higher cost, as it requires additional facilities for purification, cobalt separation, and electro-winning – which can be expensive from an energy perspective. Alternatively, the production of intermediate products can be advantageous for all the opposite reasons that make pure metals less cost effective – less CAPEX and less energy intense.

The future of the hydro-metallurgical processing is most likely in high pressure acid leaching (HPAL), which has its own pros and cons, but has been gaining popularity in the last few years.

 

High Pressure Acid Leaching (HPAL)

The HPAL process’ re-emergence on the world stage as a technique for processing laterite ore is gradually gaining popularity as companies have begun to realize the need for laterites to be processed into Class 1 nickel units. Unfortunately, while the HPAL process is gaining more attention, it’s only really effective at processing the low magnesium limonite ore, as high magnesium levels have a neutralizing affect on the sulfuric acid which plays a key role in the extraction of the payable metals in the process.

The HPAL processing begins with the crushing of the ore, which is then mixed with water and preheated before being placed into an autoclave. The autoclave then elevates the temperature (up to 255 degrees Celsius) and pressure (725 psi) of the slurry and sulfuric acid and, over the next 60 minutes, the mixture reacts, extracting the nickel and cobalt from the slurry.

Once the autoclave portion of the HPAL process is completed, the slurry must be brought back down to atmospheric pressure and, thus, requires at least a couple of pressure letdown stages, which reduces the overall pressure of the slurry. Once at atmospheric pressure, it can be washed and the nickel / cobalt separated from the liquid.

Overall, the main advantages of the HPAL process are its ability to process low grade nickel laterite ores and its high and separate recoveries of nickel and cobalt. These advantages, however, are contrasted by a few negatives, which are its inability to process high magnesium or saprolitic ores, high construction and maintenance costs due to the highly corrosive sulfuric acid and, finally, the proper disposal of the magnesium sulphate effluent (waste).

 

NOTE: There are a few other types of nickel laterite processing techniques that are used throughout the world, such as, Caron Processing, Pressure Acid Leaching (PAL), atmospheric leaching, and bioleaching.

Global Nickel Refinement

The following flow chart produced by UBS Research is a great depiction of how the current nickel supply is consumed. It’s my contention that the 10% of nickel laterite consumption, which is currently diverted to create nickel chemicals and metal, will increase over time and fulfill the Class 1 nickel demand, which I believe will outpace sulphide ore production.

nickel processing flow chart

Source: UBS Research

 

 

 

Concluding Remarks

The EV revolution is here and, to me, it’s not a matter of ‘if’ but at what rate will the global population adopt EVs into their lives. As a result, all of the battery metal markets will be affected, each in its own way. The metal that I believe will play the largest role in this revolution is nickel.

This future onslaught of demand will be fulfilled by nickel laterites, which, today, have a minimal role in the Class 1 nickel market. In my opinion, the drop in nickel sulphide production, exploration and development over the coming years will force battery makers to consume nickel produced from the HPAL processing of laterite ores.

This, in turn, will have to be met with a rise in nickel prices to allow for these low grade laterite ores to be cost effectively processed for their use within the battery market.

Ultimately, I believe the future is very bright for nickel, but don’t get too caught up in the narrative; as I’ve shown, there are other ways the market can change to accommodate this major influx of demand.

 

Don’t want to miss a new investment idea, interview or financial product review? Become a Junior Stock Review VIP now – it’s FREE!

 

Until next time,

 

Brian Leni  P.Eng

Founder – Junior Stock Review

 

 

Disclaimer: The following is not an investment recommendation, it is an investment idea. I am not a certified investment professional, nor do I know you and your individual investment needs. Please perform your own due diligence to decide whether this is a company and sector that is best suited for your personal investment criteria.

 

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Maria Smirnova – Silver, Jurisdictional Risk, and the Current Market

Maria Smirnova

The junior resource sector is fraught with risk, and in the midst of a bear market, it becomes even more evident as the market continues to trend downward. For those who choose to participate in bear markets, it truly is where the ‘wheat is separated from the chaff.’

Being diligent and researching the companies in detail, understanding their catalysts and not being afraid to take profits is, in my opinion, of the utmost importance for giving yourself the best odds of success in the current market.

Fortunes are made in the resource sector by buying when others are selling and vice versa; it just takes time and fortitude to ride out the bumps along the way.

Today, I’m sharing my recent interview with Maria Smirnova, Senior Portfolio Manager at Sprott Asset Management LP. Smirnova has over 16 years of experience in the financial services industry, and is currently part of the precious metals team and manages Sprott Silver Equities Class, Sprott Gold and Precious Minerals Fund, as well as the Sprott Hedge LP and LP II Funds.

Without further ado, a conversation with Maria Smirnova:

 

 

Brian: Lately, I’ve spent significant time debating the criteria I use and the level of risk I’m willing to take when evaluating jurisdiction. The topic is very interesting because ― although there are quantifiable aspects to jurisdiction ― I believe many of the general opinions about jurisdictional risk are based on qualitative observations or anecdotal themes that are proliferated through the mainstream media.

Broadly speaking, how do you approach investing in so-called “risky” jurisdictions? Secondly, are there any jurisdictions that you would not invest in, even if they presented a good price to value proposition? Please explain.

Maria:  In evaluating mining companies, we are constantly assessing jurisdictional risk. I break our findings into two broad categories; one group clearly has either good or bad investment attributes, and the other group is more characterized by shades of grey.

In the first category, a country’s attributes, such as its policies toward mining titles or its taxation regime, are easily examined and can be deemed to be either good or bad. Two of the best jurisdictions we invest in are Canada and Australia. Conversely, there are other jurisdictions, such as Russia or the Central African Republic, which we avoid. The biggest reason is that in either of these countries we cannot be confident that a mining title is secure. In other words, it might be possible that the government could intervene and nationalize the mining claim. We avoid situations with this level of uncertainty.

The second, “shades of grey,” category involves other issues surrounding a country’s mining investment attractiveness which are more complicated to assess. Mexico is a good example, even though the country is highly prospective and rich in gold, silver and other metals. Mexico is comprised of 31 separate administrative states, each with differing politics. Some Mexican states are much more conducive to mining investment than others and, therefore, it is critical to conduct your due diligence, and to meet with the management teams on the ground within those states.

Outside of doing a site visit ― which is the best approach to understanding the dynamics of a specific locale ― company representatives working in the field can provide key insights into what is happening at the local level. I was in Mexico a few months back, and it was incredibly informative. I visited three different Mexican states during my week-long visit, and this trip greatly enhanced my overall understanding of the country and its varying approaches to mining.

 

 

 

 

Brian: Personally, I have enjoyed the most success in the resources sector when I have been (correctly) contrarian to market sentiment. It’s one thing to understand the concept of being contrarian, and it’s another to put into practice, and be successful.

One of the biggest hurdles to being a successful contrarian is figuring out the best time to buy. For example, over the last 23 months, many precious metals companies have seen their share prices move downward or sideways.

Therefore, given the resistance to ‘catching a falling knife,’ is there a strategy you can share for taking a position in a company, in a falling market?

Maria: We take a longer-term view. The market has become very short-term focused, and we try to remain medium to long-term focused. Of course, the old saying goes, “Buy low, sell high.”  We’re at a pricing point right now where some mining companies represent incredible value from a cash flow perspective. Additionally, you can analyze other valuation metrics, such as price-to-cash flow or free cash flow, which also reveal that some mining names are very undervalued.

We track all this information daily and will buy strong, healthy companies which have sold off.  Now, there may be names that have been declining for a reason associated with a fundamental issue within the company or political risk within the jurisdiction, and in those cases, we stay away.

From a strict valuation point of view, now is a very good time to add to mining positions to investment portfolios. You don’t need to buy everything in one day; you dollar-cost average over time. Certainly, right now is a good time to buy given that both gold and silver have sold off significantly.

Sentiment is really at a low for miners right now. There has been significant cash flow out of the sector. Vanguard just announced that it is moving its mandate away from sub-advisor M&G Investment and renaming its precious metals and mining fund. This type of capitulation is not helping stock prices. But at the end of the day, it also means that even though the business has not changed, the company is selling for less ― a great opportunity for investors.

 

 

 

 

 

Brian: As you mention in your recently published Sprott Silver Report, the silver price has been range bound trading between $16 and $18 USD per ounce for the last 18 months.

In your opinion, what are the factors currently affecting the price of silver?

Maria: Silver is a fascinating subject. I am a big fan of silver and do like the fundamentals of the metal from an investment perspective. Right now, the price has come off, but I don’t think it’s the fundamentals are the reason.

Silver has been in fundamental deficit for the last three or four years and production has started to decline. Yet, silver’s uses are growing, many of which are exciting new industries such as electric vehicles and solar panels.

I believe that market forces have been pushing silver’s price down. Silver shorts on the COMEX are at record highs. You have to look back to the 1990s to find a time when the volume of short positions was this high.

We have also experienced a significant drop off in silver coin sales, which began in late 2016 shortly after the Trump election in the U.S.  When that marginal coin buyer is not there, it definitely hurts the silver market. Much of the market’s attention has been drawn or focused on marijuana stocks and crypto-currencies. I believe that when that marginal buyer returns, silver is likely to have a significant run.

 

Brian: Strong demand mixed with constrained supply can be the perfect storm for metal price appreciation. In my opinion, one source of demand which will have a profound effect on the metals markets, on a whole, is the adoption of electric vehicles.

While lithium, cobalt and nickel have garnered much of the press surrounding the EV revolution, can you tell us why silver is set to play a critical role in the EV revolution in the years ahead?

 Maria: That’s a great question; I’ve written about the importance of silver in electric vehicles. It is a topic that is not getting much attention. People generally don’t think of silver as being used in electric vehicles, because the amounts used are small; rather they focus on the the cobalt and lithium used in EV batteries because the quantities are more significant.

Silver has high electric conductivity and, therefore, is often used in electrical based machines. Cars are a perfect example. Silver is already used in many automotive components, such as air conditioners and mirrors. Basically, for anything electric, silver can be used, but typically in small amounts, so it gets little attention.

In saying this, however, electric vehicles will use more silver than older gas- or diesel-fueled cars. Autonomous vehicles will use more silver than electric vehicles and so on.  By the way, the main reason for an increase in silver usage in autonomous vehicles is the need for multiple redundant or backup systems in case of failure.

We’re excited to see the growth of both electric and autonomous vehicles, and it is only a matter of how fast these new technologies get adopted. It is the way of our future and silver will play a very significant role.

 

 

 

Concluding Remarks

There’s a lot of actionable information that can be gleaned from this interview with Smirnova. For those of you looking to hear more from Smirnova and the rest of the world-class investment professionals and subject matter experts at Sprott, I suggest subscribing to Sprott’s Insights, where their views on precious metals and real assets can be delivered right to your inbox.

Conferences are a fantastic way to meet like-minded investors, as well as the people who run the companies in which you’re investing. In my opinion, this year’s Sprott Natural Resource Symposium was the best yet, as it had a roster of All-Star speakers and some of the best companies in the junior resource sector. The Symposium continues to be one of my favourite conferences, and I highly suggest that you attend. I hope to see you there!

Additionally, for those who couldn’t make the 2018 edition of the Symposium, Sprott is currently offering a discount on the MP3 Recording Package, which includes all of the power point presentations  from the Symposium.

 

Don’t want to miss a new investment idea, interview or financial product review? Become a Junior Stock Review VIP now – it’s FREE!

 

Until next time,

 

Brian Leni  P.Eng

Founder – Junior Stock Review

 

 

Disclaimer – The following is not an investment recommendation. I am not a certified investment professional, nor do I know you and your individual investment needs. Please perform your own due diligence.

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Anaconda Mining – Takeover Candidate Criteria, Goldboro Update and Point Rousse Exploration

Anaconda Mining

I have been keenly watching the progress of Anaconda Mining over the last 6 months; they have made some significant strides toward growing the company organically and through acquisition, as they were very close to executing a takeover of Maritime Resources. In my opinion, the merger would have been a terrific deal for both sets of shareholders and the people who live in and around Baie Verte, Newfoundland & Labrador.

With two drill programs set to commence in the 2nd half of 2018, I was eager to catch up with Dustin Angelo, CEO of Anaconda Mining, to review the Goldboro Gold Project, how or if the withdrawal of their Maritime Resources takeover offer has affected their growth strategy, some of the criteria for future takeover targets, and finally, an update and overview of the Point Rousse Project – production changes and exploration targets.

Let’s take a look at what Angelo had to say.

Enjoy!

 

 

Brian: Recently, you released some great drill results from your Goldboro Project in Nova Scotia. Could you give us an overview of some of the highlights and where you are headed with the Project over the final 5 months of the year?

Dustin: The Goldboro results are the final results of roughly a 12,000-meter program that we’ve been doing since we acquired the project back last year. Overall, it was a highly successful program. We demonstrated the fact that the deposit does continue down plunge, along strike, and down the dip of the limbs of the fold structure. We had some very good intersections, and then some of the top intersections were 151 grams over 2.6 meters. Some wide intersections like 21 grams over 11.5 meters; 4 grams over 20 meters; 17 grams over 7.5 meters. We were very successful in finding some new target areas within the deposit. We had 130 new visible gold occurrences.

We’re extending the Boston Richardson system down plunge and East Goldbrook, as well. We found new mineralized zones. Everything was what you would expect. It was pretty typical for the Goldboro deposit so we were pretty pleased with that. We worked on in-filling the areas where the inferred resources were a part of our PEA. We think that we will be increasing the confidence level of some of those, moving them into measured and indicated. Overall, the program was highly successful.

We’re now embarking on our second major program, which we just announced, and is a 10,000-meter program that we’ll be doing through the fall. That one will be very similar in that we will be looking at areas for expansion. We will still be looking at areas for in-fill related to the PEA. The one new area that we are going to be going to is the West Goldbrook system. We focused on Boston Richardson and East Goldbrook in the first 12,000 meters. Now, we’re going to open up and go over to the West Goldbrook area. We’re anticipating continuing to find more mineralization, continuing to extend the deposit down plunge and along strike. I’m confident we will have similar or better results than what we’ve had in the past.

 

Brian: Over the last 3 months, I received many questions from readers pertaining to Anaconda’s takeover bid of Maritime Resources. For those who are unaware, Anaconda formally commenced a takeover bid for Maritime in April of this year, but withdrew the offer on July 12th and are pursuing other opportunities in Atlantic Canada.

How has the outcome of this takeover bid changed Anaconda’s plans for growth in the future?

 

Dustin: It hasn’t changed our plans. We are still focused on growing by acquisition. Maritime doesn’t discourage us from doing that. However, any acquisitions we look at down the road will hopefully be friendly deals.

That’s what we were looking for with Maritime, but, unfortunately, we weren’t able to achieve that. There just wasn’t much of a response from the board and management going back to January/February. That’s why we had to take the bid to shareholders. In spite of the end result, the acquisition strategy continues on. There are other opportunities within Atlantic Canada and we’ll pursue those instead. Maybe, Maritime will come back at some point down the road, in which case we’d be interested in trying to get a transaction done under the right circumstances.

As we said from the beginning, bringing together the two asset bases on the Baie Verte Peninsula makes a lot of sense. We’ve got the operating infrastructure. We’ve got a very profitable operation. Our second quarter results just came out and it shows that we continue to make money and that the operation is pretty steady. If we can add higher grade ore, it can only make it better. We’ve got all the infrastructure, the workforce, the tailings capacity, and our own ore feed. They’ve got an underground resource and it makes sense to put the two together, because each side can benefit from what the other side has. Eventually, they might come back around.

We’ll continue on our two-pronged approach which includes organic growth through exploration of our current properties as well as acquisitions. On the exploration side, we are kicking off again, using the $4.5 million that we recently raised in a flow-through financing. We will continue the organic path and grow through more exploration at Goldboro and Point Rousse. We see many opportunities to grow our mineral resources at these projects. Furthermore, we have now started our bulk sample at Goldboro and we filed the environmental assessment document so that we can begin the environmental review process. We are moving the project along from a development standpoint as well as an exploration standpoint, with the goal of production by 2020 / 2021. We believe we can extend the production life at Point Rousse while bringing Goldboro into production, ultimately reaching about 50,000 to 60,000 ounces per year of gold.

 

Brian: Secondly, if Anaconda will continue to pursue takeovers as a source of growth in the future, can you give us an idea of what you are looking for in a potential takeover target?

 

Dustin: What we’re looking for, primarily, are assets that have 43-101 resources already established on them. When you’re talking about Atlantic Canada, the only two gold producers, really, that are in commercial production are ourselves and Atlantic Gold, so all the other projects in the region are essentially pre-production. We would be looking at projects that we can put into production in the near term; properties that are ready to transition from an exploration asset or an idle asset into a development asset because it comes underneath our infrastructure, our management and our ability to raise capital. We’re looking for projects that would have anywhere from a couple hundred thousand ounces of gold to up to a million ounces, and you can find those types of projects in Atlantic Canada. It would be ideal if we can utilize some of our existing infrastructure with a project, but we’ll also evaluate it on a standalone basis.

 

Brian: As I confirmed during my site visit last fall, the Point Rousse Project will play a critical role in Anaconda’s future as you transition from the Pine Cove Open Pit Mine to the Stog’er Tight Open Pit Mine.

Stog'er Tight Deposit

Stog’er Tight Deposit Area – Taken Fall 2017 During My Site Visit

Can you give us an update on the transition?

Dustin: We were in development on Stog’er Tight during the spring and we made the official transition into commercial production in May. In May/June, we produced almost 30,000 tons of ore from Stog’er Tight. We’ve still been processing ore from Pine Cove, ore that’s been stockpiled, and the transition has been smooth. You’re talking about another open pit mine. We have all the necessary infrastructure in place. We’re just trucking ore back to the mill. We’ve got the tailings capacity there. We’re using the same contract miners, so we’re just moving equipment over.

It’s our second pit and we have a tremendous amount of experience from Pine Cove, which we operated for about eight years. A lot of the knowledge base and the experience we gained there, the use of blast movement monitoring, GPS on the shovels, all the technology, the new processes and procedures that we implemented at the Pine Cove pit. We transitioned those over to Stog’er Tight. I think it’s been a fairly smooth transition, because of the experience.

 

Brian: Continuing with the Point Rousse Project, you have announced a 5,000 metre drill program.

What are you targeting with this drill program and what’s the timeline for its completion?

Dustin: The 5,000-meter drill program at Point Rousse has three main targets. It has Argyle, which is our new deposit. We’re looking to expand that deposit, essentially going north east of the known mineral resource. The other area that we’re looking at is a discovery called Anoroc. It’s roughly 600 meters southwest of the Pine Cove pit. We’re going to target the entire area between the southwest part of that pit all the way down to the discovery. So, along that 600-meter strike length, we’re going to be poking holes in there.

At the northern end of our property package, there’s an area we call Deer Cove. We did some drilling a while ago at Deer Cove, but in a really concentrated area where there is an old adit and a vein system that was discovered prior to Anaconda’s involvement in the area. Our program was very narrowly focused, but the Deer Cove area is situated just north of a thrust fault, similar to Pine Cove. We’re going to more broadly explore along the thrust fault and look for another Pine Cove. Those are the three main exploration areas for Point Rousse.

Right now, we are doing some ground IP and soil sampling around the areas that we’re going to drill, ultimately, at Argyle. We’re waiting on a permit at Anoroc, and then we’ll finish up at Deer Cove. It’ll take us most of the fall.

Scrape Trend

Scrape Trend – Target #1 in the Image above is Anoroc

 

 

 

Concluding Remarks

From an organic growth perspective, Anaconda appears to be set to add ounces to its production profile in the coming years. As Angelo outlines in the interview, Goldboro is showing tremendous progress toward its development, and with a new 10,000-meter drill program initiated and a planned / permitted bulk sample in the 2nd half of 2018, we should see a lot of news flow.

Additionally, the progress in production out of the new Stog’er Tight Open Pit Mine, the development of the Argyle Deposit and the further exploration of the Scrape and Deer Cove Trends, Anaconda’s organic growth plans look to be very healthy.

In terms of valuation, with Anaconda’s MCAP roughly sitting at $36 million, I personally see tremendous value in buying Anaconda shares at this price point. Consider these 3 thoughts:

  • First, the updated PEA on the Goldboro Gold Project, released just a couple of months ago, presents a low case scenario of gold at $1450 CAD/oz (roughly $1160 USD/oz), which gives the Project an estimated after-tax NPV at a 7% discount rate of $44 million CAD.  Not only do I believe the gold price will be higher than $1450 CAD/oz in the future, I believe this deposit is going to get bigger, which could mean better project economics and, thus, a higher NPV.
  • Second, Anaconda has a two-pronged approach to growing the business; first, through the organic growth of existing assets and, second, through acquisition. With the steps taken over the last year, it is clear to me that the Anaconda management team is putting their money where their mouth is, so to speak.
  • Third, with Anaconda’s current MCAP (at the time of writing) at roughly $36 million CAD, which I believe only roughly values the assets found within the Point Rousse Project with its in-situ ounces (Stog’er Tight Deposit and Argyle Deposit) and infrastructure (Pine Cove Mill, Port and Tailings Facilities).  In my opinion, no value is given to the Goldboro Gold Project and its estimated after-tax NPV, which is cited above. Additionally, I don’t see any value given to The Great Northern Project (Rattling Brook and Viking) which contain ~600,000 ounces of combined Inferred and Indicated gold resources.

 

Good management teams are what make companies successful in the junior resource sector, and in saying this, I believe the Anaconda team is one of those good teams that will execute on their plans to create value for their shareholders.

I’m a buyer of Anaconda Mining and look forward to plenty of news flow the rest of the summer and into the fall.

 

Don’t want to miss a new investment idea, interview or financial product review? Become a Junior Stock Review VIP now – it’s FREE!

 

Until next time,

 

Brian Leni   P.Eng

Founder – Junior Stock Review

 

Disclaimer: The following is not an investment recommendation, it is an investment idea. I am not a certified investment professional, nor do I know you and your individual investment needs. Please perform your own due diligence to decide whether this is a company(s) and sector that is best suited for your personal investment criteria. Junior Stock Review does not guarantee the accuracy of any of the analytics used in this report. I do own Anaconda Mining Inc. shares. Anaconda Mining Inc. is a Sponsor of Junior Stock Review.

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Yukon – Canada’s Mining Future

Brian Leni

In June, I had the pleasure of visiting the Yukon, Canada’s most westerly Territory and the land of the midnight sun. The point of my visit was to partake in the 2018 Yukon Property Tour, which, this year, brought together 3 large groups of investors, analysts and media to see a few of the Yukon’s most promising projects and to participate in a full-day investment conference.

The tour took me to 6 different projects in 4 days, giving me a great perspective of the Yukon’s mineral potential and the people who are exploring and developing within it. In all, I came away very impressed and believe that it’s just a matter of when for most of the projects in terms of their development into Canada’s next mines.

Here’s a look at the Yukon by the numbers and a few specific things that I, personally, look at when gauging the opportunity for investment within a jurisdiction.

Enjoy!

 

 

Yukon – By the Numbers

Population – 38,630 (December 2017) –23% of the Yukon’s population is Aboriginal.

Capital City– Whitehorse (has an International Airport) – Population 29,962 or 78% of the Yukon’s total population.

Demographics – 0 to 19 years of age: 8,217, 20 to 64 years of age: 25,627, 65+: 4,784 – This is a great distribution of demographics for a developing Territory.

Unemployment – 2.7% (May 2018) – This is a great statistic; essentially, those who are able and want a job can find employment. The issue may be, and this is a great issue to have, finding enough workers in what I see as a bright future for growth, especially in the mining industry.

Largest Cities by population, outside of Whitehorse – Dawson City: 2,200, Watson Lake: 1,441, Haines Junction: 911, Carmacks: 549

Real GDP – $2,345.3 million (2016)

GDP by Industry (in terms of NAICS – 2016) – Public administration: 23.1%, Real estate and rental and leasing: 14.2%, Mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction: 12.8%, Health care and social assistance: 8.4%, Construction: 7.7%

  • With higher precious and base metals prices in the future, a lot of prospective projects have a very good chance of re-starting production (i.e. Alexco Resources), or developing their deposit into a mine, (i.e. Western Copper and Gold). Given the relatively small size of the Yukon economy, major projects such as Western Copper and Gold’s Casino Project will have a tremendous effect on the overall Yukon economy.
  • The Government of the Yukon and the Federal Government make up a major portion of the Yukon economy, as you can clearly see from the GDP break down. For the success of the Territory, this has to change in the future.

Fraser Institute Ranking for Mining Investment Attractiveness 2018 – 13th in the world

  • The Yukon is a premier jurisdiction for mining and attained a score of 79.67, or 13th in the world, for mining investment attractiveness, according to the Fraser Institute’s 2018 rankings. The Fraser Institute uses a number of criteria for evaluating a jurisdiction, such as political stability, mining law, taxation and, arguably the most important, mineral potential.

NOTE: All statistics taken from the Government of the Yukon Statistics

 

 Aboriginal Land Claims and Self-Government

11 of the Yukon’s 14 First Nations have comprehensive land claim (Final Agreements) and Self-Government Agreements. It was in 1993 that the template, the Umbrella Final Agreement (UFA), was signed and used toward the negotiation of individual land claim agreements.

First Nations Map

Source: The Government of the Yukon

 

With the settling of their land claims, each First Nation has the power to control and direct their own affairs. Most importantly for the subject of this article, they have direct control over the exploration and development of the mineral projects on their property.

The following First Nations have settled their land claims and are now self-governing:

 

For most investors, First Nations involvement in mining projects is typically met with skepticism; given the history of some of the dealings around the world, this isn’t unfounded. However, each situation should be examined for its individual merits, as well as the history of the specific First Nations where the prospective investment may occur.

The Yukon’s First Nations are no different and, given the immediate history with mine development, such as Victoria Gold Corp.’s development of the Eagle Gold Project within the traditional territory of the Na-Cho Nyäk Dun First Nation, it would appear to me that mutual benefit from mining is the driving force behind the cooperation agreement.

Another great example of a mutually beneficial cooperation is the synergy that has been found between the Kluane First Nation and Nickel Creek Platinum. The Kluane First Nation provides many of the key non-technical services to the Nickel Shaw Project camp, such as a great cafeteria service, which I had the pleasure of trying!

Nickel Shaw

Looking up at the Nickel Shaw Project Deposit

I think the bottom line is companies that begin their relationship early in the project’s life, work to maintain that relationship, and can prove that they are as concerned about the environment and the people who inhabit that environment will, ultimately, be successful in moving toward the end goal of developing an operating mine. When researching a company, these can be key things to look for and to ask about when interviewing management. Of course, nothing matches doing a site visit and seeing it first-hand.

 

 

 

 

Yukon’s Political Landscape

Currently, the Government of the Yukon is controlled by the Yukon Liberal Party, which is led by Premier Sandy Silver.  Generally speaking, the Liberal Party’s business philosophy is typically thought to be somewhat in the middle of the left-leaning New Democratic Party (NDP) and the right-leaning Conservatives.

In November 2016, the Yukon Liberal Party defeated the Yukon Party (conservatives), which was in power for many of the terms dating back to 2000. With a very low unemployment level and 80% of the population located in Whitehorse, politics in the Yukon are somewhat unique. Much like the rest of the country, however, issues surrounding the environment – carbon tax, power generation and housing – price and availability seem to be hot topics in the land of the midnight sun.

From an investment perspective, I’m always most concerned with left-leaning government power. Although, NDP governments have been in power in the past, the conservatives have dominated the leadership of the Territory for much of the last 20 years. Given this fact, I believe that past will be prologue in terms of the Yukoners’ general political philosophy, but it’s always something that should be watched.

 

Yukon Mining Alliance

Uniquely, to my knowledge, many of the junior and major mining companies with projects in the Yukon have formed the Yukon Mining Alliance (YMA) with the Government of the Yukon and the Canadian Northern Economic Development Agency.

The YMA’s mandate is to,

“promote Yukon’s competitive advantages as a top mineral investment jurisdiction and its member companies and their Yukon-based project.†~ YMA

In my opinion, this is a huge advantage of investing in companies with projects in the Yukon, because clearly the marketing and promotion of mining within the Territory’s borders is a major priority. Bottom line, narrative plays a big role in the success of junior mining companies, and with the added help of the YMA, Yukon-based companies have a distinct advantage working together to promote the Yukon mining jurisdiction narrative.

Personally, I have seen the YMA presence at a couple of the top mining conferences in Canada, such as PDAC and Cambridge’s Vancouver Resource Investment Conference (VRIC). The YMA is putting the Yukon on the map for interested resource investors, which, I believe, will pay off in spades as we move into the next leg of the bull market.

 

 

 

 

Infrastructure

In my opinion, the biggest knock against the Yukon in terms of risk to investment is the lack of infrastructure. With close to 80% of the Yukon population concentrated in Whitehorse, the need for roads, telecommunications and power infrastructure to the remote or uninhabited portions of the Territory hasn’t been a high priority or practical, given the cost. However, this is rapidly changing as it’s now abundantly clear that access to power, telecommunications and roads have become the major sticking points for a few of the Yukon’s most advanced mineral development projects.

Yukon / Northwest Territories Fibre Optic Line

As you can see in the image below, the thick black line represents the existing fibre optic line which feeds the Yukon with its high-speed internet access. With only one fibre optic line feeding the Yukon’s internet demand, the system was highly susceptible to disruptions due to the fibre cable being cut along the Alaska Highway.

 

Yukon Fibre Optics

Source: CBC News

To improve the reliability of the internet access, the Government of the Yukon initiated the$50 to $70 million North Canada Fibre Loop Project, which would connect the Yukon to the Northwest Territories’ (NWT) fibre network via fibre optic lines running north from Dawson City to Inuvik, NWT.

During my site visit tour, it was announced that this project was successfully completed and, thus, has brought a new age of reliability to the Yukon’s internet access. This project is a major milestone for the Territory and should provide a reliable base from which to build, moving forward.

 

LNG Power Generation

In 2017, 97% of the Yukon’s electricity was produced from 3 hydro-electric power generation plants. For a number of years, these hydro-electric operations were backed up by diesel generators, which kicked in during peak demand scenarios.

With carbon emissions and the overall price of power generation becoming bigger constraints to development, in 2014, the Government of the Yukon made the decision to green-light Yukon Energy’s plan to move to a liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a fuel for generating backup power for the grid.

The fracking revolution dramatically changed the supply to demand balance in the oil and gas world, causing a major swing upward in the availability of natural gas for the market. Thus, natural gas prices have hovered around their multiple decade lows for a while, now.

While natural gas is one of the cheapest and cleanest burning fossil fuels available, the issue has been economic transportation. To allow for a meaningful amount of natural gas to be transported over a significant distance, it’s currently converted into LNG.

The natural gas is extracted from the ground and then refrigerated to minus 162 degrees Celsius, turning it into a liquid and, thus, more amenable to economic bulk transportation.

Yukon LNG

Source: Yukon Energy

LNG Storage

A big step toward making LNG a viable option for developing mines in the Yukon could be the construction of an LNG storage facility. Currently, Ferus Natural Gas Fuels Inc., the LNG supplier to the Yukon, is working with Yukon Energy to gauge the potential of such a facility.

If the LNG storage facility were to be built in Whitehorse, it could not only feed the backup generators, but also act as a depot for future mines that incorporate LNG into their long-term energy plan.

Having a reliable power infrastructure is paramount to the success of large-scale mining operations. With a number of sizable development projects waiting for their opportunity to be developed into mines, in my opinion, the Yukon is headed in the right direction by pursuing an LNG storage facility.

 

 

Yukon Resource Gateway Project

On September 2, 2017, the Yukon received a major commitment toward its development when it was announced that the Canadian Federal Government would contribute $247 million to the Yukon Resource Gateway Project.  The $247 million represents just over half of the $469 million needed to construct a road from Carmacks to Dawson City.

In my opinion, the main reason for this major undertaking was Goldcorp’s Coffee Project, which sits roughly half way between Carmacks and Dawson City, and is in the process of being developed into Canada’s next producing gold mine. Additionally, Western Copper and Gold’s Casino Project sits in the permitting stage of development and looks to benefit greatly from this announcement, as the road will give access to what is now a remote location.

Further, the Government of the Yukon will contribute $113 million to the Gateway Project, leaving the remaining $109 million to the mining companies to fulfill. The construction of the road has begun and, given the comments from Western Copper and Gold representatives, should take roughly 3 years to reach their property from Carmacks.

I think there’s no doubt that this road will be a major turning point for the Yukon and its development into a destination for mining, because I believe it and possibly slightly higher metal prices are the only things keeping this area of the Yukon from being developed, right now.

Mineral Potential

In my opinion, one of the most compelling reasons for investment in the Yukon is its mineral potential. With a good portion of the Yukon still not accessible by road, much of the Territory is still yet to be explored and, therefore, presents a blue sky type of opportunity for those who are willing to go off the beaten path.

Yukon Geological Survey

Both the Federal and Territorial Governments clearly recognize both the potential and the large expense associated with mineral exploration and development and are, therefore, directing funding accordingly. One such Territorial organization at the forefront of this PUSH is the Yukon Geological Survey (YGS).

The YGS’s mandate is to ‘provide the geosciences information required for resource and land management for the benefit of Yukoners, by acquiring and disseminating geological and geo-hazard knowledge to support exploration, inform resource and land management planning, and engage communities, schools and the public.’

Additionally, it manages the Yukon Mineral Exploration Program (YMEP), which has been set up to promote mineral prospecting and exploration activities in the Yukon. The YMEP has a $1,600,000 funding level for the 2018-19 fiscal year and is accepting applications for prospective projects.

It’s initiatives such as this that are keeping the pipeline of prospective geological targets full and, therefore, of keen interest to investors.

Tintina Gold Province

One of the most prospective regions for mineral exploration in the north-western portion of North America is the 150,000 square kilometre Tintina Gold Province (TGP). TGP runs east-west across the middle portion of the Yukon and Alaska, and is roughly 200 kilometres wide in its entirety. The TGP is essentially bound by the Kaltag-Tintina fault system to the north and the Farewell-Denali fault system to the south.

TGP encompasses arguably the Yukon’s most famous geological region, the Klondike gold fields which lay just south of Dawson City.  As stated earlier, the Resource Gateway Project will open this region up to development and exploration. Companies such as Klondike Gold, Trifecta Gold, Goldcorp, White Gold and Western Copper and Gold will greatly benefit from the road access to theirprojects.

White Gold Property

View from the helicopter while flying over White Gold’s Property

Visible Gold

White Gold Core Shack – red circle signifies visible gold

 

 

Klondike Gold Rush

The Klondike Gold Rush began in August of 1896, as three prospectors, George Carmack, Jim Mason and Dawson Charlie, discovered gold in what they referred to as ‘Rabbit’ Creek, or what is now referred to as Bonanza Creek. With the discovery and the rush to stake their claim, word quickly spread of their discovery, and so spurred an historic gold rush in Canada’s Yukon Territory and the United States’ Alaska.

 

Historic Dawson City Map

Source: Yukon Government Archive

It’s estimated that the Klondike Gold Rush attracted 100,000 people from all walks of life, testing their luck against the odds to find their fortune.  Many of the new American prospectors found their way north via ships boarded in Seattle.  Former ports, such as Dyea, Alaska, were accessible at high tide and allowed prospectors to begin the lengthy trip north toward the centre of the Gold Rush, Dawson City, which is roughly 700km north.

Seattle Boats

Source: Yukon Government Archive

Unfortunately, for the vast majority of newly minted prospectors, their dream of discovering a fortune never came to fruition; if it wasn’t the weather and the long trip to the prospective gold claims, it was the exorbitant costs that came with exploring and living in the north. In many of the articles I read while researching the Klondike Gold Rush, many estimated that costs were 10 times higher than what most of the people would have experienced in their former lives, living in Toronto, New York or Chicago.

Dawson City klondike gold rush

Source: Yukon Government Archive

The Klondike Gold Rush is estimated to have produced $29 million in gold over its 3-year span. Additionally, the Yukon Geological Survey estimates that a total of 20 million ounces of gold has been extracted from the Klondike goldfields since 1896. Gold mining can be credited with spurring the development of much of Canada and America’s northern most territories and states. In my opinion, the Yukon holds tremendous mineral potential and will only increase its prestige within the mining community.

 

 

Selwyn Basin

Moving to the eastern portion of the TGP within the Yukon, you enter the Selwyn Basin, host to the famously rich, Keno Silver District, which has 214 Moz of historic silver production and is located north-east of Mayo. It’s also in the immediate vicinity of Keno City, one of the Yukon’s smallest communities with just 24 residents.

For those who may not know, Alexco Resource’s Bellekeno silver mine is located in the Keno Silver District, which began operation in 2011 and produced until its suspension in 2013. The Keno Silver District is not only famous for its past production, but its high silver grades, which range up to 1,000 grams per tonne, putting them near the top in the world.

Alexco Resources

Standing in Alexco’s Flame & Moth decline

ATAC Resource’s Rackla Gold Project, also in the Selwyn basin, is a standout, in my mind, given the Carlin Style gold mineralization which has been found on the property. With its typically cheap mining and recovery methods, Carlin Style gold mineralization has made Nevada one of the premier gold producing jurisdictions in the world. In recent news, ATAC released their maiden resource on their Osiris Project, which has an inferred resource of 1.685 Moz at an average grade of 4.23 g/t.

 

 

Rackla Gold Project

ATAC Resources – Rackla Gold Property

 

Finally, the Selwyn Basin is home to sedimentary exhalative (SEDEX) deposits (Pb-Zn-Ag), which, in terms of Fireweed Zinc’s Macmillian Pass Zinc Project, rank near the top of the world’s largest in terms of zinc and overall mineral content.

In my opinion, world-class mineralization potential awaits those exploring in the Yukon. As the infrastructure quality improves and cash begins to pour back into the mining sector on a whole, I have no doubt that the Yukon will play a major role in Canada’s mining future.

 

 

 

Concluding Remarks

No investment is without risk, and for many companies within the junior resource sector, jurisdiction is the greatest risk. Personally, having researched the Yukon and now visited, I have to agree with the Fraser Institute rankings and believe the Yukon is a premier jurisdiction for mining investment.

In terms of the risk that I see with the Yukon, it’s mainly related to infrastructure and the time required to build it. In terms of investment, however, I like that the risk is associated with what I believe is a ‘when’ and not an ‘if’ question – it’s just a matter of time before the necessary roads, power and telecommunications are in place to move many of these projects forward.

I must note that there’s a good portion of projects in the Yukon that sit in close proximity to everything that is needed and, therefore, I caution anyone from painting all of the projects with the same brush.

The Yukon has world-class mineral potential and it’s attracting the world’s major mining companies, which, over the last few years, have taken either portions of a few of the juniors or have acquired the entire project for development into a mine.

With what looks to be a politically stable government and a good relationship with its self-governing First Nations, the Yukon is ready for investment, and I will be looking to invest in a couple of the companies that I believe present the greatest price to value propositions.

 

Don’t want to miss a new investment idea, interview or financial product review? Become a Junior Stock Review VIP now – it’s FREE!

 

Until next time,

 

Brian Leni  P.Eng

Founder –Junior Stock Review

 

 

Disclaimer: The following is not an investment recommendation, it is an investment idea. I am not a certified investment professional, nor do I know you and your individual investment needs. Please perform your own due diligence to decide whether this is a company, sector or jurisdiction that is best suited for your personal investment criteria. Brian Leni does not own any shares of the companies mentioned in this article at this time.

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Interview with Georgia Williams of the Investors News Network (INN)

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On June 14th I presented and was apart of a panel during the first day of the Mining Investment North America Conference. While at the show I had the chance to speak with Georgia Williams from the Investor News Network (INN). In the interview we discuss the upside potential and risks associated with investing in junior nickel companies and also a few points on how I think you can be more successful in the market. Enjoy!

 

Disclaimer: The following is not an investment recommendation, it is an investment idea. I am not a certified investment professional, nor do I know you and your individual investment needs. Please perform your own due diligence to decide whether this is a company and sector that is best suited for your personal investment criteria. I do own shares in FPX Nickel Corporation. Junior Stock Review and/or Brian Leni has NO business relationship with FPX Nickel Corp. or any other company mentioned within this interview.

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A Conversation with Whitney George, Chief Investment Officer at Sprott and Chairman of Sprott U.S. Holdings

In a recent interview with Whitney George, Chief Investment Officer at Sprott and Chairman of Sprott U.S. Holdings, we covered a number of different subjects including his background, gold’s role in a portfolio, the importance of remaining open minded, Sprott Focus Trust (FUND: Nasdaq) and, finally, the upcoming Sprott Natural Resource Symposium in July.

George is a generalist investor who seeks out quality companies that are selling at a discount to their underlying value. He has been very successful throughout his 30+ years in the investment business.  There are many valuable insights to be gleaned from his responses in this interview.

Enjoy!

 

Brian: What brought you to where you are today, or more specifically, how has your career led you to Sprott?

Whitney: Early on in my career, I figured out that I should listen to my mother who recommended that I pay attention to what Warren Buffett was doing. I started off as a retail stockbroker in resource stocks in the very early ’80s, after their big run in the ’70s. In 1991, I joined my best customer, an investment manager named Chuck Royce, who was somewhat legendary in investing in small- and micro-cap stocks, using a value discipline, which was very nicely aligned with what I was doing. I had a wonderful 23.5-year career at Royce & Associates, managing portfolios and mentoring portfolio managers and building what was, at that time, the premier thought leader in the investment management of small-cap value.

Starting around 2013-14, our discipline at Royce was not working as effectively. The QE programs, or zero interest rate programs, resulted in suspending capitalism for about five years because the discount mechanism behind markets started to malfunction as an unintended consequence of the Federal Reserve’s money printing. Our jobs became very difficult. I found myself making excuses for not keeping up with benchmarks in the mutual funds that I managed, to the point that I thought I could be having more fun going back to building businesses and investing in businesses.

I had a tremendous experience that I reflected on in the late ’90s when everybody wanted large-cap stocks, growth stocks and, ultimately, dot-com stocks. While at Royce, I took a contrarian approach and hired many small-cap value managers that were being dismissed because of the lack of interest in that segment of the market. Of course, when things turned around in 2000-2001 we had all the talent, were very well positioned, and benefited mightily in the next 11 or 12 years from a resurgence in small-cap value investing.

When I began looking around for other opportunities, I was familiar with Sprott. In 2014, Sprott was in the midst of a bear market in precious metals. I knew Eric Sprott quite well. Peter Grosskopf, the CEO, and I got to know Rick Rule very well. Sprott appeared to provide an exciting opportunity for me to repeat what I had done in the late ’90s at Royce, i.e., to lean against the tide, stayed committed to a sector that was very much out of favor, maintain and build a team and product offerings so that when the inevitable recovery in precious metals and mining shares occurs, Sprott could be the leading resource available for investors.

Although when I first joined Sprott in 2015 it was trying to diversify away from precious metals, last year, we decided to part ways with the general mutual fund managers, who are now known as Ninepoint. Sprott is now focused principally on precious metals, mining, and hard assets themes as an alternative investment manager. I think we reasserted our new focus by assuming the management contract of the Central Fund of Canada at the beginning of this year, which we relaunched as Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (NYSE: CEF). We are very committed to our space and our sectors, and we are patiently awaiting the next inevitable recovery.

 

Brian: A qualitative narrative regarding the macro view of the world is constantly being broadcasted by the media. In North America, it was the impending doom related to war with North Korea or, recently, the talk of trade wars due to NAFTA negotiations. 

There are elements of these topics that have quantitative components, but in my opinion, most people concentrate on the qualitative framing that is presented.  I, myself, have struggled with how to properly deal with the qualitative narrative.

Does the qualitative narrative, in a macro sense, affect how you invest in the market? If so, how?

Whitney: I think there is one very long-term theme that became apparent to me back in the 1998-2000 period, which is the debasement of currencies. I am typically optimistic about things. I’m a business value investor. I look for companies that I can buy and theoretically hold forever because they’re well managed, they allocate capital well, and they have strong positions, strong balance sheets.

However, aside from the unprecedented day to day noise created by the current administration, one long-term macro theme that I have every conviction is that when countries get themselves into the kind of financial positions that they’re currently in, there’s only one viable option. Countries do not like to default on their obligations, and certainly austerity measures that try to reign in spending have a very limited and finite life before the population decides they’d like new leadership. I think we are seeing a lot of this around the world right now.

The ultimate solution to resolving too many claims on existing assets is to debase the currency. So printing Dollars, printing Euros, printing Yen has become the norm. I trace the beginnings of this kind of approach back to the Greenspan era, which first started with the Long-Term Capital Management hedge fund crisis and the Russian debt crisis that occurred in the fall of 1998. Certainly, it was repeated after 9/11, and then again after the most recent financial crisis in 2009. I just don’t see any other way out of the current situation other than debasement.

When a currency becomes infinite in quantity, investors should turn their attention to those things that are finite. Precious metals are finite in quantity, as are other hard assets categories like farmland and energy. And, so, an overlying theme to all the investing I’ve been doing for the past 20 years has been an awareness of those investments that will not be debased by what central banks around the world are trying to engineer.

Brian: What utility does gold bring to a portfolio?

Whitney: Gold is a currency that is nobody’s obligation. I view gold as a mandatory allocation in my own portfolio and recommend it to others in its physical form, or some derivative of that.  Gold is the original alternative asset, and it is not correlated to other markets. It provides a bit of insurance in times of high stress. Gold has, in the 18 years since the beginning of this millennium, posted superior returns to U.S. stocks as measured by the S&P 500 Index, including the reinvestment of dividends.

Of course, one can hand pick any time period to make their case. But I find that by having a 10% allocation to precious metals, I’m more comfortable being more aggressive with the other 90% of my portfolio because I have a bit of an insurance policy if things go poorly. Gold gives me another bite at the apple because it provides diversification.

 

Brian: We live in a society of paradigms or bias that lock us into thought patterns that make many of us blind to other alternatives that may be more efficient or beneficial.

Whether it be financial, political or social, in your opinion, how does one keep an open mind and see through paradigms and their own inherent bias?

Whitney: Keeping an open mind to changes is very important. As investors, we all have to learn about new technologies, to try and understand where the opportunities are and where the disruptions will occur. Being diversified and keeping a balanced investment portfolio is critical because we’re not always going to get it right. What happens in society as well as in investing is that after a prolonged period of something being successful, it becomes viewed as somewhat permanent, and people lose sight of the fact that things do change.

I would say that a good example of that now is investing in an S&P 500 Index nine years into a bull market. It has become almost a permanent default, a self-reinforcing phenomenon that is likely to one day not work out. Like any kind of momentum investing, one never knows when the momentum is gone until it is too late. Having a discipline, keeping an open mind, and then sticking to that discipline has worked very well for me, and for many other successful long-term investors. This gives you a strong foundation with which to filter out much of the political and social noise that we’re all being overly bombarded with every day.

 

Brian: While paradigms and bias give us the basis for how we view the world, emotion is the fuel that causes us to act without logic. The biggest lesson I have learned in my speculating career, thus far, is to act against the crowd and buy when everyone else is selling – and vice versa.

How do you control your emotions when speculating in the risky and volatile junior resource sector?

Whitney: My investment hero is Warren Buffett. He has said that as an investor it is wise to be “fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”  Human nature has not changed, and so having tools to deal with one’s own emotions is very important. That gets back to having a discipline and laying out a plan, and then executing on that plan when markets call for it, irrespective of how it feels.

In my case, I spend significant time researching companies and assessing what those companies are worth. What is the fair value of the business? What would another company pay to own all of that business? At what price does that business generate free cash and investor returns to me that are appropriate, and maintain that consistent return/demand throughout the market cycle?

I often think in terms of “cap rates”, which is a real estate term, and which is basically the earnings yield that I get on my investment. What I do is I set out target prices, both buys and sells, where I think a sell price would be a full valuation for a business, and a target price would be that which I would get the kind of return I would like, i.e., the double digits over time, if it should achieve the sell price.

Then, it is a matter of sitting back and waiting, and letting the market do whatever it is going to do on any given day. By having a plan in advance, one can execute on that plan in a fairly unemotional way by buying when the markets are selling off and your companies are approaching your buy targets, and conversely, by liquidating or selling as companies start to approach your sell valuations. For me, it’s a two-step process. First, do the research and understand the business. Second, execute based on what kind of opportunities the market is giving you or taking away.

Brian: Along with being Sprott’s Chief Investment Officer and Chairman of Sprott U.S. Holdings, you are also a Senior Portfolio Manager at Sprott Asset Management USA, where you manage the Sprott Focus Trust (FUND: Nasdaq), which is a closed-end equity investment fund.

Can you give my readers an overview of the Fund’s goal, and the process you employ to achieve that goal?

Whitney: One of my goals when I joined Sprott was to be more closely aligned with the people that I’m working for, i.e., the investors. I brought to Sprott two funds; a hedge fund and the closed-end fund, FUND, that you mentioned, where my extended family and I control about 30% of the shares, which means I am eating my own cooking. For me, the value proposition for FUND is absolute returns. Net of fees, net of taxes, net of inflation. You can’t eat relative performance.

I employ the same discipline I’ve been using since I was co-managing the Fund starting in 1996. I invest in high-quality companies with strong balance sheets, high returns on capital and good management; these are companies that are good at allocating capital. I try to buy them when they are out of favor, and at that attractive cap rate I mentioned earlier, and to hold them until they become fully valued. FUND represents a diversified portfolio of 40-50 stocks. No one stock is allowed to represent more than 5% of the portfolio. FUND is somewhat blind to market cap, although, generally, it has been invested in smaller and mid-cap companies where I have been able to find better valuations.

Since the financial crisis in ’09, FUND has been populated by some mega-cap stocks, including Apple, because its valuation metrics were as appealing as anything I could find by digging down into the micro-cap sector. My approach is a low turnover strategy, buying and holding positions with a 3- to 5-year investment horizon, buying companies when they are out of favor and that I know will survive because of the strength of their balance sheets and their core businesses. I like to hold these companies for as long as it takes the market to recognize its value. FUND is managed for a long-term capital gain objective with a mind to being tax efficient and generating absolute returns. I have maintained an allocation in resource stocks or mining companies in the neighborhood of 10-15%  for many years, somewhat as a hedge. Although I cannot invest in commodities directly, I have found some interesting companies to own in the mining sector. The Fund also owns about 15 percent in energy. My biggest areas of interest right now are in technology, particularly on the hardware side. That is where the market has been concerned about cyclicality recently, and in my mind, misplaced some very high-quality companies.

 

Brian: For me, I get a great deal of value from attending resource investment conferences. In particular, I’m looking forward to attending, what I think is a must attend, the Sprott Natural Resources Symposium in Vancouver next month.

In your opinion, what is the greatest benefit that the Sprott Natural Resources Symposium has to offer investors?

Whitney: I have always found it interesting and important to meet with company management. But being a contrarian, and somewhat of a skeptic, management is always going to tell you the best case story and what it wants you to hear. One of the interesting things that you can learn from conferences is what the peer group of various companies has to say about them, their prospects and their stories, so you get a much more balanced comparison than you might from a one-on-one management presentation.

The views and commentary of other participants at conferences, whether they are investors or competing companies, are often very insightful, if not colorful. Going to a conference and immersing oneself in a sector for four or five days allows you to do some deep thinking without the daily distractions of all that’s going on back at your office.

Brian: Whitney, thank you so much for answering my questions. I appreciate it.

Whitney: You’re welcome.

 

Consistently making money in the market isn’t done without proper due diligence and the personal discipline to see your investment thesis reach its potential.  It’s easy to get caught up in some of the qualitative narrative that surrounds both the market and the world in general. However, as George mentions in the interview, buying quality companies that are selling for less than their value and then holding them as long as you can, until you reach your target price, is an absolute KEY to success.

For those who don’t want to manage their entire portfolio, I highly suggest checking out Whitney George’s Sprott Focus Trust (FUND: Nasdaq), where your money can be managed by a man who has a very good track record for success and, as he says, where he “eats his own cooking,” by being a major shareholder of the fund.

Also, personally, I’m really looking forward to attending the Sprott Natural Resource Symposium in July, and think that it is a MUST-attend event for anyone who invests in the junior resource sector.  Being at the conference gives you the chance to see and listen to a fantastic group of speakers, which includes Rick Rule, Doug Casey, and James Grant, just to name a few. I hope to see you there!

 

Don’t want to miss a new investment idea, interview or financial product review? Become a Junior Stock Review VIP now – it’s FREE!

 

 

Until next time,

 

Brian Leni  P.Eng

Founder – Junior Stock Review

 

Disclaimer: The following is not an investment recommendation, it is an investment idea. I am not a certified investment professional, nor do I know you and your individual investment needs. Please perform your own due diligence to decide whether this is a company(s) and sector that is best suited for your personal investment criteria. Junior Stock Review does not guarantee the accuracy of any of the analytics used in this report.

 

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Ecuador – A Renaissance in Mining Investment Attractiveness?

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Lately, I’ve spent a lot of time debating the criteria I use and the level of risk I’m willing to take with regards to jurisdiction. I find the topic of jurisdictional risk very interesting because, although, there’s a quantifiable aspect to jurisdiction, I believe many of the general opinions regarding jurisdictional risk are based on qualitative observations or anecdotal themes that are proliferated through the mainstream media.

A good example is Russia. Many jump to the conclusion that it’s a VERY risky country and, therefore, not a place to invest. I don’t necessarily disagree; most of the propaganda about Russia, today, is ‘negative.’

Let’s, however, take a look at one of the criteria listed by the Fraser Institute in its examination of jurisdictional risk; political stability. Relative to its peers, Russia scored low, which too many translate into ‘stay away.’ While political stability is a complex factor, I was taken aback when a friend, whose company does business in Russia, said he finds this scoring comical; “does anyone really think there’s going to be some serious political upheaval while Putin is in charge?” Given the complexity of evaluating political stability, his answer isn’t complete, but it still reveals the contrast in views – those who have experience in these ‘risky’ jurisdictions, and those who rely solely on narrative to form their opinions.

Last year, one of the mining industry’s best, Rick Rule, gave me some sage advice regarding jurisdictional risk;

“My own experience is that most investors equate political risk to their emotion rather than to reality, and you tend to react more strongly to political risk that you haven’t experienced or don’t understand. My own belief is that money that is stolen from me by white people in English, according to the rule of law, is just as gone as money that is extorted from me in some third world kleptocracy.

My experience, further, by doing business internationally, and this is going to sound like a generality, which it is, but it is also true, countries that can’t get any worse don’t, and countries that can’t get any better don’t, either.  This plays out over time, not immediately, but the truth is, the countries that have rewarded me the best are countries that have been coming off low bottoms. An example would be Chile, with a superb exploration endowment coming off, first, the idiocy of socialism under Allende, and then, the murderous regime of Pinochet. The response of the geology in Chile to stability and the sort of social sense that they had had enough of rightist and leftist autocracy was spectacularly good for me. I made money in hard places like Russia, Sudan, Congo. The truth is that most of the great, easy to find, tier one deposits that exist in countries that have been able to be explored efficiently in the last 40 years have been made. The big tier 1 discoveries that have yet to be made are going to be made in places where there have been problems with access or problems with cost of capital. Places like the Tethyan metalagentic belt, running through Turkey, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, those types of places. The easy deposits in safe places have mostly been found.” ~ A Conversation with Rick Rule, CEO of Sprott US Holdings

With this in mind, and through my process of due diligence, I believe Ecuador is a country which is coming off a bottom in terms of mining investment attractiveness. I’m a buyer of what I believe are the highest quality junior mining companies exploring and developing projects in Ecuador, and believe that money invested now, near the bottom, gives the investor a great risk to reward opportunity.

 

 

Ecuador

  • Capital City – Quito
  • Population – 16.529 million
  • Currency – U.S. Dollar
  • 2017 GDP – $70.955 billion USD
  • 2017 Unemployment Rate – 4.34%
  • Main Industries – Petroleum (more than 40% of exports), food processing, textiles, wood products and chemicals
  • Main Export Partners – United States, Chile, Peru, Colombia, Japan and Russia

*All Figures taken from IMF website

 

Ecuador’s economy is the 8th largest in South America and is driven by the oil industry, where petroleum makes up almost half of the country’s exports. The agriculture sector is a distant second with a little more than 10% of exports.

NOTE: Ecuador is the largest banana producer and exporter in the world.

Ecuador’s oil production began in the early 1970s and is clearly the main driver of the economy. In the years before oil production, Ecuador was a country whose people identified with an agrarian social philosophy, meaning they valued rural society as superior to urban society. With the influx of cash into the country, this has slowly started to change and, in my opinion, is a key point in understanding the Ecuadorian culture.

 

Social Unrest – Taxes and the Environment

Looking into Ecuador’s past, it’s evident that its people are not afraid to protest, especially when it comes to the environment or a number of social issues. Ultimately, moving forward, the government will have to choose how they deal with future protests but, either way, social unrest surrounding a potential mine site could have a major impact on the success of the project.

 

Environment

If I were to pick the most likely point of contention regarding mining’s future in Ecuador, it would be related to the environment. Ecuador is near the top of the world list of biodiversity hotspots in terms of vertebrate species, endemic vertebrates and plants. Specifically, the Intag region, named for the river that runs through it, spans two of the world’s 34 most biologically important areas.

This biodiversity is highly coveted by many who live within Ecuador and many of the environmental NGOs around the world.  Doing a quick search of environmental organizations with propaganda referencing Ecuador reveals a long list of interested parties including, The Ecologist and Fund My Planet.

While there is the potential for turmoil regarding the environment, I think that the probability of there being issues can be reduced if handled correctly by the mining companies. By ‘handled correctly,’ I think it’s really important to educate and support the local communities in the region with which you’re developing or exploring. Educate on the benefits of mining and how the company intends to protect the environment in which it’s working.

Additionally, an X-Factor in this type of relationship are ties with Ecuadorian companies that have operated within the country for many years. I think the companies that leverage their relationships within Ecuador are miles ahead of those who try to navigate the culture and government from the ground floor.

There’s one such relationship which I think has a ton of potential to bring shareholders value through their expertise and recognition within the local communities.  Adventus Zinc Corporation and Salazar Resources (SRL:TSXV) have this type of agreement, and I had the opportunity to ask Sam Leung, Adventus’ VP Corporate Development, about it.

 

Adventus Zinc Corp

Adventus Zinc Corp. (ADZN:TSXV)

MCAP – $45.5 million (at the time of writing)

 

 

Brian: In your opinion, why was it important to have a partner, such as Salazar, in Ecuador?

Sam: Local know-how is often invaluable, particularly in the mining sector and developing jurisdictions such as Ecuador. Many foreign companies and corporate personnel often fail to recognize what they do not know about a project jurisdiction and its normal business and community practices, so a trusted local partner can add significant value with operational experience and local networks. For Adventus’ Curipamba Project and the Ecuador country-wide alliance, a strong partnership has been formed with Fredy Salazar and his local Salazar Resources team, who are pioneers in Ecuadorean mineral exploration with over 30 years in their home country. The Salazar team work closely with Adventus to help expedite and complete tasks in country with minimal complications, and share important business insights from domestic developments.

 

Brian: What do you see as the biggest risk for mining investment in Ecuador?

Sam: We perceive community relations and integration to be the biggest risk not just for mining investment in Ecuador but most other developing countries. Each project has different stakeholders and dynamics, so investors need to be aware of management teams’ capabilities and limits in addressing social needs in project development. For the Curipamba Project, the Salazar team are well-respected members of the project communities, while Adventus brings additional resources and international best-practices to address social needs.

 

 

 

Left-Leaning Socialism

The political philosophy which I’m most apprehensive about, especially from an economic standpoint, is left-leaning socialism. Throughout history, political structures rooted within these frameworks have been bad for business.

I believe, however, that given the obvious PUSH toward reducing taxes and attracting mining investment dollars, at least in the short-term, the risk associated with this form of political philosophy is reduced, but never too far away.

For me, when a political philosophy is so ingrained in the culture of a country, it’s only a matter of time before the cycle shifts and once again reflects the country’s history during Correa’s rein. I’m very optimistic that the next few years will remain positive for mining investment, but will remain open-minded about the subtleties that may be indicating a reversion back to the mean!

 

 

The Last 10 Years

A major turning point in Ecuador’s history, in terms of how it relates to mining, occurred in November 2006 with the election of Rafael Correa as President.  Interestingly, Correa’s 10 years as President was unusual given the fact that there had been 7 different Presidents in the previous decade.

Correa’s appeal to the Ecuadorian people appears to have been rooted within socialist or left-leaning political philosophy, which saw a major portion of tax dollars diverted into social causes, such as healthcare, education and agricultural subsidies. Additionally, and more to the point of this article, Correa focused his attention on extracting more cash from the mining business.

In April of 2008, Correa’s government adopted a new mining mandate which restricted companies to holding a maximum of three concessions and instilled a 180-day suspension of activities for almost all mining concessions in Ecuador while a new mining law was put together. This controversial move did not go over well with investors, and most of the mining companies which held property in Ecuador, as they saw their share prices fall in response to the news.

Months after, still under the guise of the new mining mandate, Aurelian Resources sold their multi-million gold ounce deposit, Fruta del Norte, to Kinross Gold Corporation for $1.2 billion.  I believe this deal single-handedly marked the height of ‘doom,’ so-to-speak, of the hard-rock mining industry within Ecuador.  Over the coming years, Kinross participated in negotiations with the government over terms to develop Fruta del Norte into a mine but, ultimately, couldn’t come to an agreement.

As cited in many articles relating to the negotiations, the Ecuadorian Government insisted on a 70% windfall profits tax, which, in essence, would limit the profitability of the mine in a rising gold price environment. Ultimately, this led to negotiations falling apart in 2013. Within a year, Kinross formally stepped away from Fruta del Norte with its sale to Lundin gold for $240 million – a whopping 80% loss!

As I stated, I believe this marked the low point for hard-rock mining in Ecuador; outside of nationalizing Fruta del Norte, selling it for a fraction of the purchase price because of negotiations with the government had a major effect on how the mining industry viewed investment within Ecuador’s borders.

The failure of these negotiations is clearly visible in the popular Fraser Institute Rankings, as Ecuador’s score for mining investment attractiveness fell to a low of 38.1, ranking it 80th out of the 122 countries that were covered by the 2013 report. In the years since, Ecuador has slowly improved its ranking with a score of 45.9 in 2014, 45.36 in 2015, 50.38 in 2016, and 52.09 in 2017. While this is a marginal improvement year over year, the score is headed in the right direction, and one which, I believe, will improve again in 2018.

 

2018

Why do I believe that Ecuador’s mining investment attractiveness score is going to continue to improve in 2018? Great question and one that needs to be explained in further detail, as Ecuador’s past needs to be kept in perspective when making prognostications.

 

Goal of Attracting $4.6 Billion Investment Dollars Over the Next 4 Years (2021)

In May 2017, Lenin Moreno replaced Correa as President of Ecuador.  While much of what I have read describes Moreno as having a socialist or leftist political philosophy that’s very similar to Correa’s, Moreno has publicly stated a desire to attract close to $5 billion for Ecuador’s mining sector. This is a lofty goal because, in my opinion, they will have to make great strides with regards to changing their image in the mining sector in order to accomplish this.

At this year’s PDAC, Ecuador may have made a crucial step in improving their image, as they were the headline country sponsor for the event and had a large booth at the show. While advertising is great and a step in the right direction, if they don’t take action to improve the country’s mining investment attractiveness, it may be all for not.

Even before this advertising PUSH, however, Ecuador has shown that it’s poised to change. The biggest change, in my mind, comes with hiring Wood Mackenzie as a consultant to assist in changing Ecuador’s mining tax regime, making it competitive with the rest of the world.

Here’s a list of some of the positive fiscal and financial reforms made over the last few years:

  • Value Added Tax (VAT) Recovery – Starting in 2018, VAT will be recoverable for mineral exports
  • Windfall Tax – A bill has been expedite to remove the windfall tax, and should be approved in the next 30 days.
  • Sovereign Adjustment
  • Currency Transaction Tax – exemption on tax relating to currency outflows
  • Accelerated Depreciation – Investors’ choice of 5-10 years (locked in fiscal stability contract)
  • Fiscal Burden – For example, the fiscal burden on a large scale copper project has dropped from 30% to 23% with the changes to the tax regime

NOTE: Review Wood Mackenzie “Ecuador Tax Regime”

 

Brian: Of the positive fiscal and financial reforms made by the Ecuadorian government to date, which do you feel will be the most effective in changing perception of the mining community?

Sam: We believe the significant reduction in the Windfall Tax terms over the past few years has been integral to changing the investment perception. Due to the negative connotations, we also believe the government of Ecuador could go further and remove the Windfall Tax outright, but that remains to be seen. Please refer to our corporate presentation on the Adventus website for more details on the Windfall Tax.

 

Brian: In your opinion, is there anything else that needs to occur to change the perception of the mining and investment communities?

Sam: With regards to exploration investment jurisdictions globally, Ecuador has been arguably the hottest over the past 12 months and this momentum continues. Longer term, we believe a significant milestone for Ecuador will be the completion and successful commercial operation of the first large mines which are currently in construction. Once these foreign companies demonstrate returns on their investments, many more deep-pocketed investors will be drawn into Ecuador.

 

 

Cash Flow Back Into Ecuador

As Ecuador’s actions align with the statements they’ve made about bringing mining investment dollars to the country, cash has begun to flow back into the country’s hard-rock mining sector. Arguably the best example of this comes from Lundin Gold and their push toward the development of Fruta del Norte.

Fruta del Norte

On January 14th, 2016, Lundin Gold announced that they had completed the negotiation of the definitive form of the Exploitation Agreement for the Fruta del Norte Project with the Government of Ecuador.  The completion of this Agreement is a huge milestone given the controversy associated with its history. For those interested in reviewing the details of the Agreement, please follow the link to the news release.

The completion of the Agreement was very important, but most important is Lundin’s ability to take the Agreement and put it into action via financing for the development of the Fruta del Norte Project. On March 26, 2018, Lundin Gold took a major step forward by announcing that they would be closing their $400 million USD equity private placement.  In my opinion, while the risk to reward ratio is very much in favour of Lundin Gold, considering the upfront capital cost versus upside potential related to expected gold production, the raising of this amount of cash for a gold project located in Ecuador speaks volumes about how the market is changing its view of the country, and Lundin’s level of influence within the industry.

 

Collaboration – Chile and Ecuador

On March 10th, 2018 Codelco, the world’s largest copper miner, announced that Chile’s Minister of Mining, Aurora Williams, and her counterpart in Ecuador, Rebecca Illescas, signed a joint declaration that strengthens the agreements of the Codelco-Enami EP alliance, and expedites the execution of the Llurimagua bi-national copper project, located in northeast Ecuador.

To date, there has been $34 million USD spent on the Llurimagua Project. It’s expected that the total will be upwards of $50 million USD by the end of the advanced exploration phase. The signing of the agreement and the money being spent by Codelco on the Llurimagua Project is another example of the changing tides in Ecuador.

 

Cascabel

One of the hottest stories in the junior mining sector in 2017 was about Sol Gold, which is developing Cascabel, its porphyry copper-gold deposit, located in the Imbabura province in the northwest region of Ecuador.

Cascabel is a great example of the mineral potential that exists within Ecuador. Clearly, investors are attracted to Sol Gold with their high-grade copper over wide intervals, such as that which was found in Cascabel Hole 12 and produced an interval of 1560 meters at 0.93% CuEq, or Hole 9, which produced an interval of 1197.4 meters at 1.16% CuEq.

Are mining investors avoiding Ecuador? Glancing at Sol Gold’s stock chart, I think the answer is no. With Ecuador’s push toward change in its hard-rock mining policy, and what looks to be world-class mineral potential, investors are clearly interested in the risk to reward potential.

 

 

 

Ecuador’s Potential

In my opinion, the top reason for investing in junior mining companies that are exploring or developing projects in Ecuador is the mineral potential that exists within its under explored borders.  Also, more with regards to the projects that are in development, Ecuador produces 90% of its internal energy requirements via hydro electric dams, giving Ecuador some of the cheapest electricity in the world.

Mineral Potential

Ecuador is located on the northwest coast of South America and is host to the northern portion of the Andes Mountain chain. The Andes are famous for their mineral endowment, as a couple of South America’s most prolific mining countries, Chile and Peru, have produced some of the richest deposits in the world.

In a presentation entitled, Geological and Mining Potential in Ecuador, John Efrain Bolanos cites,

“the spatial-time distribution of the Cu porphyries and related epithermal mineralizations of the Peru metallogenic belts are very similar to those ones in Ecuador.”

Source: John Efrain Bolanos Presentation – Geological and Mining Potential of Ecuador

 

From Bolanos’ presentation, Ecuador can be broken down into 6 geo-structural domains, which showcase Ecuador’s geological potential:

  1. The Fore Arc Basin of the Coast
  • Cretaceous to Cenozoic basin underlain by aloctonous basaltic ocean crust
  1. Western Cordilera
  • Formed by an accretionary prism mainly of ocean crust composition, continental crust and accreted Late Mesozoic to Cenozoic ocean terrains
  1. Interandean Graven
  • Formed by thick and large Oligocene to Miocene volcano-sedimentary sequences
  1. Real of Central Cordilera
  • Formed by several litho-tectonic divisions of Andean bearing and separated by regional faults. Guamote division, Alao division, Loja division, Salado division and Zamora division
  1. Eastern Subandean Zone
  • Formed by forearc belt of the basement covered by volcano-sedimentary sequences
  1. Back Arc Basin of Iquitos
  • Comprises of Oriente or Amazonian basin mainly formed by sedimentary and volcano-sedimentary sequences

 

Given Ecuador’s favourable geography, similarities to a couple of the world’s most prolific mining countries and lack of modern exploration activity, Ecuador may be one of the world’s last frontiers for potential world-class deposit discoveries.

 

Brian: Was Ecuador’s mineral potential a factor, first, in choosing  the Curipamba Project, and second, in expanding upon the exploration and development deal with Salazar?

Sam: In our global hunt for zinc-related projects in 2017, the quality of the Curipamba Project with respect to its high grade El Domo deposit and the additional exploration potential over its 22,000 hectare area stood out when compared with other known projects and operations globally. During our due diligence process, we also recognized the scale of potential discoveries within under-explored Ecuador and how a well-aligned partnership with Salazar would provide us with first-mover advantages during Ecuador’s adolescence as a mining jurisdiction. Ecuador’s mineral potential, located between Peru and Colombia, is at the heart of the investment thesis.

 

 

Concluding Remarks

It’s my contention that Ecuador is in the midst of a renaissance toward perceived mining investment attractiveness. While there’s a conscious effort being made by the Ecuadorian government to attract investment from the global mining industry, I believe investors and mining companies are rightly skeptical about placing their money in a place where so much destruction to capital has occurred in the past.

In my opinion, the risks that pose the largest threat to investment dollars still exist and will not cease to exist at any point in the future. I believe the Ecuadorian people have a culture which is rooted in left-leaning socialism. Currently, the pendulum, while still hanging under the socialist umbrella, has pushed further right and will remain there for the next few years, but will revert back to the mean at some point in the future – to that I think it’s inevitable.

Additionally, given the biodiversity of Ecuador and the global push toward environmental diligence, mining within Ecuador’s borders will always ‘walk the line’ between being accepted and being protested. Companies that do not make an effort to explain how they will protect the environment and the other benefits of mining to the communities will not be successful.

While the risk associated with investing in Ecuador is very real, I believe there’s tremendous opportunity in Ecuador right now. This is based on the following:

  • Current President, Lenin Moreno, has stated that it’s his goal to attract close to $5 billion in mining investment dollars over the course of his 4 years as President. Lundin Gold’s $400 million financing for the development of Fruta del Norte speaks to the market beginning to turn in favour of investment within Ecuador.
  • Adventus Zinc, Lundin Gold, Codelco, BHP and Sol Gold are all examples of companies that have started putting investment dollars to work within Ecuador. It’s my opinion that smart money begins to flow into the smart contrarian markets first.
  • Wood Mackenzie’s influence in Ecuador’s mining taxes is a major step toward becoming a world-class destination for mining exploration and development. Reductions in VAT and the company’s fiscal burden, along with the proposed elimination of the windfall tax, are all integral steps in attracting further investment dollars.
  • Immense mineral potential – Much of Ecuador has not been explored with modern exploration techniques. Given Ecuador’s geographical location, I believe it’s safe to say that Ecuador may be one of the world’s last remaining jurisdictions with tier 1 deposit type discovery upside potential.

 

I’m investing my money in Ecuador and believe it’s just a matter of time before the market recognizes the changes that have been made and will follow suit.

 

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Until next time,

 

 

Brian Leni  P.Eng

Founder – Junior Stock Review

 

 

 

Disclaimer: The following is not an investment recommendation, it is an investment idea. I am not a certified investment professional, nor do I know you and your individual investment needs. Please perform your own due diligence to decide whether this is a company and sector that is best suited for your personal investment criteria. I do own shares in Adventus Zinc Corporation. Junior Stock Review and/or Brian Leni has NO business relationship with Adventus Zinc or any other company mentioned within this article.